China's potential peacekeeping role in post-war Ukraine and its costs

[WORLD] The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has captivated the world’s attention, prompting discussions about how the war might eventually come to an end. With numerous geopolitical players vying for influence over the region’s future, one surprising possibility has emerged: China stepping into a peacekeeping role in post-war Ukraine. While this idea could provide a pathway toward stability, it comes with its own set of challenges, risks, and diplomatic consequences that could reshape the geopolitical landscape. In this article, we explore what a potential Chinese peacekeeping role in Ukraine would entail, its implications for international relations, and the costs involved.

China’s Rising Global Influence

China’s global influence has grown exponentially over the last two decades. Once a regional power, China is now an economic giant with significant diplomatic and military reach. Beijing has consistently positioned itself as a promoter of peace and stability, particularly in regions where it has strategic interests. The idea of China participating in peacekeeping operations, especially in a war-torn country like Ukraine, is not entirely out of character for Beijing's foreign policy, which often emphasizes multilateralism and non-interference.

However, the situation in Ukraine presents a much more complicated scenario. The country has been devastated by nearly two years of war between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists, with a significant number of civilians displaced and infrastructure destroyed. The question of who will help rebuild and maintain peace in the region once the war ends is pivotal, and China could find itself in a unique position to offer assistance.

Peacekeeping and Its Challenges

Peacekeeping missions are complex operations that typically involve military, diplomatic, and humanitarian efforts to stabilize post-conflict zones. The United Nations (UN) has historically been the body responsible for most peacekeeping efforts, with member states contributing troops and resources. However, in recent years, there have been increasing calls for other global powers to step in, particularly in regions where traditional peacekeeping mechanisms have failed or are insufficient.

China has been involved in peacekeeping missions in places like South Sudan and Mali, where it has contributed troops, police, and humanitarian assistance. While these missions were smaller in scale compared to what might be required in Ukraine, they demonstrate China’s willingness to engage in peacekeeping under the right circumstances.

However, Ukraine presents a much more politically sensitive situation. Given Russia's involvement and its historical ties to Ukraine, any peacekeeping operation would need to be carefully calibrated to avoid exacerbating tensions between Russia, Ukraine, and the broader international community. This is where China’s approach could both help and hinder the peace process.

The Geopolitical Implications

A Chinese-led peacekeeping mission in Ukraine would have significant geopolitical ramifications. China has maintained a neutral stance on the conflict, calling for peaceful negotiations and a resolution that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty. However, Beijing’s growing ties with Russia complicate its position, especially considering the ongoing strategic partnership between the two nations.

Many Western powers, including the United States and the European Union, are cautious of China’s involvement in Ukraine. These countries have expressed concerns about Beijing’s alignment with Russia, especially after China abstained from UN Security Council votes condemning Russian actions. A Chinese peacekeeping presence in Ukraine could be viewed by the West as an attempt to legitimize Russian territorial gains or undermine international sanctions.

On the other hand, China might argue that its involvement in peacekeeping could serve as a neutral force, distinct from Western influence and Russia's interests. This could open the door for a new type of diplomacy in the post-war recovery phase, one that seeks to bring all parties to the negotiating table. However, even this approach would come at a cost in terms of balancing its relationships with Russia, the West, and Ukraine.

What Would a Chinese Peacekeeping Force Look Like?

If China were to take on a peacekeeping role in Ukraine, the composition of such a force would be crucial. China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), has a large standing force, but its peacekeeping capabilities are relatively untested in large-scale operations outside of Asia. Beijing would need to demonstrate its commitment to non-partisan intervention, which might involve contributing forces to an international peacekeeping coalition rather than leading the mission unilaterally.

A Chinese peacekeeping force would likely include humanitarian aid, infrastructure rebuilding, and diplomatic mediation. China could offer to rebuild parts of Ukraine’s shattered economy, particularly in sectors where it has expertise, such as infrastructure, technology, and energy. However, this would also involve significant financial and political investment, which may not be easy to justify in light of China’s own domestic priorities and regional ambitions.

The Cost of Peacekeeping in Ukraine

The cost of peacekeeping in Ukraine, both financially and diplomatically, would be substantial. First and foremost, any peacekeeping operation requires a long-term commitment of resources, including financial aid, military personnel, and logistical support. While China has the financial resources to fund such a mission, it must carefully weigh the long-term returns on this investment, especially considering the significant geopolitical risks involved.

China’s participation in peacekeeping could also be seen as a shift in the global balance of power. Many countries already view China with suspicion due to its increasing influence in international institutions and its assertive actions in the South China Sea. A major intervention in Ukraine could further solidify fears that China is positioning itself as a counterweight to Western powers, particularly the United States.

Moreover, China’s efforts to mediate peace in Ukraine would come with the challenge of managing its relationship with Russia, which may view any peacekeeping mission as a potential challenge to its influence over Ukraine. This delicate balancing act could prove difficult, especially if Russia perceives China’s role as undermining its strategic goals.

The Potential Benefits for China

Despite the challenges, there are several potential benefits for China if it were to take a peacekeeping role in Ukraine. First, it could enhance China’s global reputation as a stabilizing force in international conflict resolution. By positioning itself as a neutral party, China could gain favor with countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, who are increasingly wary of American-led interventions.

Second, a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine could provide China with strategic leverage in post-war negotiations. As one of the world’s largest economies and a key player in international trade, China could use its role in rebuilding Ukraine to strengthen economic ties with the European Union and other global powers. This could serve as an economic boon for China, helping to expand its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) into Eastern Europe and facilitating new trade routes.

Lastly, China’s involvement in peacekeeping could reinforce its commitment to multilateralism and peaceful diplomacy, distinguishing itself from Western nations, which have been more prone to military intervention. This approach could appeal to countries that view China as a more stable and predictable partner.

China’s potential role in peacekeeping in post-war Ukraine is a topic that carries considerable weight in international diplomacy. While Beijing has the resources and capacity to assist in rebuilding and stabilizing Ukraine, it must carefully navigate the complex web of international relations to avoid exacerbating tensions with Russia, the West, and Ukraine itself.

The costs of such an intervention would be high, both financially and diplomatically. However, China’s involvement could also yield long-term benefits in terms of global influence and strategic positioning. Ultimately, the decision to take on a peacekeeping role in Ukraine will require China to balance its economic interests, its diplomatic relationships, and its vision for the future of global peacekeeping.