What Vietnam's "nuanced diplomatic gesture" means when it comes to the South China Sea conflict with Malaysia

[MALAYSIA] Vietnam's recent silence on a South China Sea dispute with Malaysia has emerged as a fascinating case study in nuanced diplomacy. This strategic move, far from being a simple non-response, speaks volumes about the intricate web of relationships, territorial claims, and regional dynamics at play in one of the world's most contested maritime areas.

The Dispute in Question

The controversy centers around a complaint letter sent by Malaysia to Vietnam in early October 2024. The letter, addressing Vietnam's alleged expansion of a reef in the South China Sea, marks a rare instance of bilateral tension not directly involving China, the region's dominant power. A letter of complaint had been delivered from Malaysia to Vietnam regarding the latter's purported growth of a reef in the South China Sea that both countries claim as their own respectively.

This dispute highlights the ongoing challenges in the South China Sea, where multiple nations claim overlapping territories. The situation is further complicated by China's assertive stance in the region, often overshadowing bilateral issues between other claimant states.

Vietnam's Strategic Silence

Vietnam's lack of immediate response to Malaysia's complaint is not an oversight but a calculated diplomatic move. As noted by analysts, this silence reflects "a careful diplomatic strategy to avoid 'jeopardising' its relationship with its neighbour". This approach underscores the delicate balance Vietnam must maintain in its foreign relations, especially with fellow ASEAN members.

Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute's Southeast Asia programme, offers insight into Vietnam's strategy: "There could be many factors for Vietnam's delay in replying, as it might want to wait until the outcome of Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's visit to China this week". This statement highlights the interconnected nature of regional diplomacy, where bilateral issues are often influenced by broader geopolitical considerations.

The Broader Context: ASEAN and China

Vietnam's approach to this dispute cannot be understood in isolation. It's crucial to consider the broader context of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) dynamics and China's significant influence in the region.

ASEAN's Internal Divisions

The South China Sea disputes have long been a source of tension within ASEAN. The organization's struggle to present a unified front on this issue has given China an advantage in regional negotiations. As the article points out, "divisions within Asean give China an advantage in stalling regional agreements".

These internal divisions make bilateral disputes between ASEAN members particularly sensitive. Vietnam's cautious approach to Malaysia's complaint reflects an understanding that such disputes could potentially weaken ASEAN's position in broader negotiations with China.

China's Role and Influence

China's assertive stance in the South China Sea looms large over any regional maritime dispute. A report by the Beijing-based Grandview Institution claimed that "Vietnam had reclaimed more land in the South China Sea in the past three years than in the previous four decades". It also serves as a reminder of China's keen interest and involvement in the region's territorial disputes.

China's influence is further evidenced by the timing of Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's visit to China, which coincides with this diplomatic incident. The photograph of "Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (left) with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Shanghai" visually underscores the complex interplay of bilateral and multilateral relationships in the region.

The Nuances of Vietnam's Diplomatic Strategy

Vietnam's silence on this issue reveals several key aspects of its diplomatic approach:

Prioritizing Regional Stability

By not immediately responding to Malaysia's complaint, Vietnam demonstrates a commitment to regional stability. This approach aligns with ASEAN's general preference for resolving disputes through dialogue and negotiation rather than confrontation.

Balancing Bilateral and Multilateral Interests

Vietnam's strategy reflects a careful balancing act between its bilateral relationship with Malaysia and its broader interests within ASEAN and in relation to China. This nuanced approach allows Vietnam to maintain flexibility in its diplomatic positioning.

Avoiding Escalation

By refraining from an immediate public response, Vietnam avoids escalating the situation. This measured approach provides space for behind-the-scenes diplomacy and prevents the dispute from becoming a major point of contention in ASEAN forums.

Strategic Timing

The delay in response could be seen as a strategic move, allowing Vietnam to assess the outcomes of regional developments, such as the Malaysian Prime Minister's visit to China, before formulating its official stance.

Implications for Regional Maritime Security

Vietnam's handling of this dispute has significant implications for regional maritime security:

Setting Precedents for Dispute Resolution

How Vietnam and Malaysia ultimately resolve this issue could set important precedents for handling similar disputes in the South China Sea, particularly those not directly involving China.

Influence on ASEAN's Code of Conduct Negotiations

The outcome of this bilateral dispute could impact ongoing negotiations for an ASEAN Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. A peaceful resolution could strengthen ASEAN's position in these negotiations.

Balancing Act with China

Vietnam's approach demonstrates the delicate balancing act that smaller Southeast Asian nations must perform in relation to China. By handling this dispute carefully, Vietnam avoids giving China opportunities to exploit intra-ASEAN divisions.

The Way Forward

As the situation unfolds, several key factors will likely influence the resolution of this dispute:

Bilateral Negotiations

Direct negotiations between Vietnam and Malaysia, away from the public eye, will be crucial in finding a mutually acceptable solution.

ASEAN's Role

ASEAN's ability to facilitate dialogue and promote unity among its members will be tested by this dispute.

China's Reaction

How China responds to this bilateral issue, given its own interests in the South China Sea, will be a significant factor in the dispute's resolution.

International Maritime Law

The principles of international maritime law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), may play a role in shaping the eventual outcome.

Vietnam's silence on the South China Sea dispute with Malaysia is indeed a nuanced diplomatic gesture, reflecting the complex interplay of bilateral relations, regional dynamics, and global geopolitics. This approach underscores the importance of careful, strategic diplomacy in managing territorial disputes in one of the world's most contested maritime regions.

As the situation continues to evolve, it will provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of quiet diplomacy in resolving regional conflicts and maintaining stability in Southeast Asia. The outcome of this dispute could have far-reaching implications for future maritime territorial claims, ASEAN unity, and the broader balance of power in the South China Sea region.