Why IRS tax refunds are significantly lower this year

[UNITED STATES] Tax season often brings mixed emotions for Americans. While many taxpayers eagerly await their tax refunds, this year, the picture looks a little different. According to early IRS filing data, the average tax refund is more than 32% lower compared to the same time last year. This decline has raised many questions among taxpayers who are wondering what’s behind the reduced refunds.

In this article, we’ll explore the reasons for this decrease in refunds, what taxpayers can expect this tax season, and how it impacts your financial situation.

The Average IRS Tax Refund Has Dropped by 32%

Early data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) reveals a significant decline in tax refunds so far this season. The average refund for this year has been reported as more than 32% lower compared to the same period in the previous year. This sharp drop in refunds has left many taxpayers surprised, especially those who typically rely on these refunds to offset financial expenses or contribute to savings.

As of February 2025, the average refund issued by the IRS stands at around $2,100. This is a notable drop from $3,100 at the same point in 2024, with a difference of approximately $1,000.

But why is this happening? What factors are contributing to such a dramatic change in the size of tax refunds?

Key Factors Behind Lower IRS Tax Refunds in 2025

Several factors are contributing to the lower tax refunds this year, many of which are related to changes in tax policies, economic shifts, and the expiration of temporary tax relief measures. Here’s a closer look at some of the most important reasons behind the decline:

1. Expiration of Pandemic-Related Tax Relief Programs

One of the most significant contributors to the decrease in refunds is the expiration of several pandemic-era tax relief measures. In response to the financial strain caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, Congress enacted temporary programs designed to provide financial support to individuals and families. These included expanded child tax credits, increased deductions for dependents, and direct payments to help ease the financial burden.

For the 2025 tax season, many of these benefits have expired. As a result, taxpayers who previously benefited from these credits are seeing smaller refunds. For instance, the enhanced child tax credit, which was temporarily increased to $3,000 per child under 18 in 2021, has returned to its pre-pandemic level of $2,000. This reduction has impacted taxpayers with children the most, as they may have been accustomed to larger refunds in the past few years.

2. Lower Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) for Some Taxpayers

Another factor contributing to smaller refunds is the reduction in the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) for certain individuals. The EITC is a benefit designed to help low- to moderate-income working individuals and families. The amount of the EITC is based on the taxpayer’s income and number of dependents.

During the pandemic, the EITC was temporarily expanded to assist more families. However, these changes have been rolled back, and the credit has returned to its previous structure. Taxpayers who qualified for larger EITC payments in 2023 may find themselves receiving significantly smaller refunds this year.

3. Reduced Tax Withholding for Many Workers

During the pandemic, many employees saw reduced tax withholding as part of government stimulus packages. These temporary measures resulted in workers having more take-home pay throughout the year. However, as the pandemic’s immediate economic effects waned, these tax adjustments were gradually phased out.

As a result, many taxpayers are now seeing smaller refunds because they had more income withheld throughout the year. While this meant more money in their pockets earlier, it now means that they are not receiving as large of a refund when they file their taxes.

4. Changes to Tax Deductions and Credits

Beyond the pandemic-related tax changes, some other routine adjustments to tax deductions and credits are also impacting refund amounts this year. For example, adjustments to tax brackets and income thresholds have reduced the tax benefits for many individuals, especially those in middle and upper income brackets.

Some taxpayers may have also experienced changes to itemized deductions. For example, the standard deduction increased slightly, but it may not be enough to offset changes to other credits, leading to smaller overall refunds.

5. Higher Taxable Income for Many Taxpayers

Another important factor is that many taxpayers saw an increase in their taxable income due to rising wages, inflation adjustments, and other financial changes. While higher earnings are generally a good thing, they can also result in higher taxes owed, particularly for those whose tax brackets shifted upward due to inflation.

As a result, many individuals who received wage increases or bonuses in 2024 may be facing a larger tax bill than they initially anticipated. This can lead to lower refunds or even the need to owe additional taxes.

6. More Americans Facing Delayed Returns

According to IRS statistics, a significant number of tax filers have faced delays in receiving their refunds due to ongoing issues with processing returns. While delays are common in certain years, they have been more pronounced in 2025, as the IRS has faced staffing shortages and technical difficulties related to an increase in tax filings. This has contributed to the overall frustration and confusion surrounding the 2025 tax season.

What Does This Mean for Taxpayers?

The smaller-than-expected refunds for 2025 may leave many taxpayers questioning how to adjust their finances moving forward. For those who have relied on large tax refunds in the past, it’s important to reassess expectations and consider making adjustments for future tax years. The IRS encourages taxpayers to adjust their withholding and estimate their tax liabilities more accurately, which can help prevent surprises come tax season.

However, if you are one of the taxpayers affected by the smaller refunds this year, there are a few key tips to help navigate the situation:

Review Your Tax Withholding: If you find yourself receiving a smaller refund, it may be time to check your withholding on your W-4 form. This ensures that the proper amount of taxes is being withheld from each paycheck, which could prevent you from overpaying or underpaying in future years.

Consider Tax Planning Strategies: Depending on your income and expenses, tax planning strategies such as contributing to retirement accounts or making charitable donations can help lower your taxable income and potentially increase your refund in the future.

Stay Up to Date on Tax Policy Changes: Tax laws are subject to change, and it’s crucial to stay informed about any new tax policies or credits that may be available to you. Working with a tax professional can help you navigate these changes and optimize your refund potential.

Be Patient With Delays: The IRS has warned of potential delays in processing returns. If your refund is delayed, be patient and avoid contacting the IRS unnecessarily. Refund processing typically takes 21 days or more, depending on the complexity of your return.

While a 32% drop in the average IRS tax refund for 2025 may come as a shock to many, it’s important to understand the factors at play. The expiration of pandemic-era relief programs, changes to tax credits, and economic shifts have all contributed to this decline. Taxpayers should adjust their expectations and consider planning for the future to avoid surprises in future tax seasons.

By staying informed and adjusting withholding and financial strategies, taxpayers can better navigate this tax season and make the most of their refunds in the years to come.