[MIDDLE EAST] The Syrian civil war has taken a dramatic turn as rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a surprise offensive that has rapidly changed the landscape of the conflict. In a series of stunning victories, opposition fighters have captured key cities, including Aleppo and Hama, creating what experts are calling a "real possibility" of President Bashar al-Assad's fall from power.
Rebel Advances Shock Assad Regime
The rebel offensive, which began on November 27, 2024, has caught the Syrian government and its allies off guard. Within a week, opposition forces seized control of Aleppo, Syria's largest city, and pushed southward to capture Hama, a strategically vital city in central Syria.
The Syrian army announced its withdrawal from Hama on December 5, stating that it had redeployed outside the city "to preserve civilians lives and prevent urban combat". This retreat marks a significant blow to Assad's regime, which had maintained control of Hama throughout the civil war that began in 2011.
HTS Leads the Charge
At the forefront of this offensive is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group with historical ties to al-Qaeda. Despite its controversial background, HTS has managed to coordinate effectively with other rebel factions, including the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA).
Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of HTS, was seen touring Aleppo's historic citadel, signaling the group's confidence in its recent gains. In a video address, Jolani stated, "I pray to God Almighty that this will be a victory full of mercy and kindness, free from revenge".
Strategic Implications of Hama's Fall
The capture of Hama is particularly significant due to its central location and historical importance. Situated along the primary highway that leads to Homs and Damascus, Hama's fall opens up new possibilities for rebel advancement towards the capital.
Jonathan Spyer, a fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, described Assad's military as "under-equipped and poorly organized," highlighting the regime's vulnerability. The loss of Hama not only threatens Assad's control over central Syria but also exposes the weakness of his forces without substantial support from allies like Hezbollah and Iran.
International Reactions and Involvement
The sudden shift in Syria's power dynamics has drawn international attention. Russia, a key ally of Assad, has launched airstrikes in an attempt to halt the rebel advance. However, its ability to commit resources is significantly diminished compared to its initial intervention in 2015, largely due to its ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
UN Syria envoy Geir Pedersen expressed concern over the developments, noting that they have provoked "different reactions among the Syrian people, a grave threat for some, a sign of hope for others". The international community is closely monitoring the situation, particularly the potential humanitarian impact and the risk of further regional destabilization.
Humanitarian Concerns and Displacement
As the conflict intensifies, humanitarian concerns are mounting. The United Nations reported that 115,000 people have been "newly displaced across Idlib and northern Aleppo" due to the recent fighting. Human Rights Watch has warned of the potential for serious abuses against civilians by both opposition groups and government forces.
Assad's Weakened Position
The rapid rebel advance has exposed the fragility of Assad's regime, which had appeared to be consolidating power in recent years. Dr. Carmit Valensi, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, pointed out that the offensive "caught the 'Axis of Resistance' at a critical point of weakness".
Assad's reliance on external support, particularly from Hezbollah and Iran, has become a liability as these allies face their own challenges. The redeployment of Hezbollah forces to Lebanon and the group's losses to Israeli strikes have left Assad vulnerable at a critical moment.
The Road to Damascus
With Hama under rebel control, attention now turns to Homs, Syria's third-largest city. Located just 40 kilometers from Hama, Homs represents the last major government stronghold before Damascus. The fall of Homs would leave Assad's seat of power exposed and could potentially lead to a change in regime.
Jihad Yazigi, editor of the Syria Report newsletter, emphasized the gravity of the situation: "Assad now cannot afford to lose anything else. The big battle is the one coming against Homs. If Homs falls, we are talking of a potential change of regime".
Implications for Regional Stability
The sudden resurgence of the Syrian conflict has far-reaching implications for regional stability. The involvement of various international actors, including Turkey, Russia, and Iran, adds layers of complexity to an already volatile situation.
The potential fall of Assad's regime could lead to a power vacuum, raising concerns about the future governance of Syria and the balance of power in the Middle East. It also poses questions about the fate of religious and ethnic minorities in areas now under rebel control.
Looking Ahead: Uncertain Future for Syria
As the rebel offensive continues to gain momentum, the future of Syria hangs in the balance. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Assad's regime can mount an effective counteroffensive or if the opposition forces can consolidate and expand their gains.
The international community faces the challenge of responding to this rapidly evolving situation while addressing humanitarian concerns and working towards a stable, long-term solution for Syria. As the conflict enters this new phase, the possibility of a negotiated settlement may become more pressing for all parties involved.
The sudden rebel advance in Syria has created a "real possibility" of Assad's fall, reshaping the dynamics of a conflict that has raged for over a decade. As the situation continues to unfold, the world watches closely, aware that the outcome will have profound implications not just for Syria, but for the entire region.
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