How would Asean handle US tariffs? With goods, weaponry, and the South China Sea, analysts

[WORLD] In response to the U.S. administration's announcement of impending tariffs on automotive, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are formulating strategies to mitigate potential economic impacts. Analysts suggest that these strategies may encompass trade concessions, defense procurement, and addressing geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea.​

Indonesia's Trade Concessions

Indonesia has proactively announced a series of trade concessions aimed at easing tensions ahead of negotiations with the United States. The concessions include reducing import taxes on U.S. goods such as steel, mining products, and health equipment, with tariffs lowered to 0–5% from the previous 5–10%. Additionally, tariffs on electronic goods like mobile phones and laptops from all countries will be reduced to 0.5%, down from 2.5%. Indonesia also plans to increase imports of U.S. products, including liquefied petroleum gas, soybeans, and components for infrastructure projects. These measures are part of a broader strategy led by Chief Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto, who will lead a delegation to Washington to pursue favorable trade terms. ​

Vietnam's Defense Procurement Initiatives

Vietnam is considering increasing its imports of American goods, notably defense and security products, to address its substantial trade surplus with the U.S., which exceeded $123 billion last year. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh announced this initiative during a cabinet meeting, also requesting a 45-day delay in the implementation of a new 46% U.S. tariff. The Vietnamese government aims to negotiate a more balanced and sustainable trade relationship with the U.S. and expedite the delivery of commercial planes ordered by Vietnamese airlines. Since the U.S. lifted its arms embargo on Vietnam in 2016, defense sales have included coastguard ships and trainer aircraft, with ongoing discussions for additional military equipment.

ASEAN's Collective Approach

Malaysia, holding the ASEAN chair in 2025, has proposed a summit with the United States to present the region's views on the planned tariffs. Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan highlighted the significant challenge these tariffs pose, noting that electrical and electronics products constitute 60% of Malaysia's trade with the U.S. He emphasized the need for ASEAN to confer on how to convey their concerns to ensure the proposed tariffs do not unduly burden member countries. ​

Potential Economic Impact

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has warned that retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. could reduce the region's economic growth by up to two percentage points by 2026-2027. This would represent the slowest regional growth since the Asian financial crisis, excluding the pandemic years. AMRO has adjusted its full-year economic growth forecast for the ASEAN+3 region to 4.2% for 2025, down from the previous 4.4%, citing the challenging external environment stemming from U.S. trade protectionist policies. ​

Diverse Perspectives on Negotiation Strategies

Former Australian Trade Minister Andrew Robb has criticized yielding to U.S. demands for trade concessions, labeling the recently imposed tariffs as illegal under existing bilateral free-trade agreements. Robb warns that such tariffs could trigger a severe recession in Asia, significantly harming economies through reduced regional growth, investment, and employment. He advocates for strengthening trade relations with other partners, such as the European Union, and expanding regional agreements like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). ​

As ASEAN nations navigate the complexities of impending U.S. tariffs, their strategies reflect a blend of economic concessions, defense procurement, and diplomatic engagement. The effectiveness of these approaches will depend on the evolving geopolitical landscape and the outcomes of forthcoming negotiations with the United States.​