How Israel and Iran's war influences the Middle East

[MIDDLE EAST] The simmering confrontation between Israel and Iran has affected the Middle East for decades. Theirs has long been one of the region's most heated wars. The two have attacked one other, mainly silently and, in Iran's case, frequently by proxy, while avoiding a direct conflict.

The roots of this conflict can be traced back to geopolitical shifts and ideological differences that emerged in the late 20th century. The Iranian Revolution of 1979 marked a turning point in the relationship between the two nations, transforming Iran from a secular monarchy with friendly ties to Israel into an Islamic republic openly hostile to the Jewish state. This dramatic shift in Iran's foreign policy stance set the stage for decades of tension and proxy conflicts that continue to shape the region's political landscape.

The present fight between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas, which Iran supports, has thrown the conflict into a perilous new phase. This conflict has pulled in other Iran-backed extremist groups, as well as Iran itself. Tensions rose after Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in July while visiting Iran, presumably by Israel.

Then, in late September, Israeli soldiers assassinated the commander of Hezbollah, Iran's most important regional partner, and pushed into southern Lebanon as part of a campaign against the militia.

Iran launched over 200 missiles directly at the country on October 1, escalating the situation further. In response, Israel launched attacks on locations throughout Iran in the early hours of October 26.

Why are Israel and Iran enemies?

Israel and Iran were allies beginning in the 1950s under Iran's final monarch, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, but the partnership came to an abrupt end with Iran's Islamic revolution in 1979. The country's new authorities have taken a strong anti-Israel position, describing the Jewish state as an imperialist entity in the Middle East.

Iran has funded groups that regularly attack Israel, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthi rebels, all of which the US considers terrorist organizations. Israel sees Iran's ability to manufacture nuclear weapons as a threat to its existence and is suspected of orchestrating a sabotage effort against the country's nuclear program.

Iran's leaders claim they have no plans to create nuclear weapons. According to the Israelis, a cache of documents smuggled out of Iran by their intelligence personnel in 2018 proves otherwise.

Israeli authorities have frequently stated that if Iran reaches the edge of weapons capacity, they will destroy its nuclear programme with air power, as they did with Iraq's in 1981 and Syria's in 2007.

The international community has played a significant role in attempting to mediate the conflict between Israel and Iran, with varying degrees of success. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, was a landmark agreement signed in 2015 between Iran and major world powers, including the United States, to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. However, the withdrawal of the United States from the deal in 2018 under the Trump administration and subsequent reimposition of sanctions on Iran have further complicated diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in the region.

What is the role of Hezbollah?

Lebanon is the earliest front in the shadow war.

In response to Israel's invasion of the country's south in 1982, Lebanese Muslims affiliated with Iran's dominant Shiite branch of Islam created the militia that would become Hezbollah. Their outfit served as a proxy for Iran's top security force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israel and Hezbollah have battled several times, including a war in 2006.

Since Hamas launched an attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023, triggering the present war, Hezbollah has demonstrated sympathy with Hamas by shooting missiles, mortars, and rockets into Israel almost daily, leading Israel to reply with its own bombardment.

With its large fighting force and armament, which includes long-range and precision-guided missiles, Hezbollah is regarded as Iran's most valuable weapon for projecting influence in the Middle East.

What are the other fronts in the Israel-Iran conflict?

Syria

Throughout Syria's civil war, Iran has established a military presence in the nation.

It has done so to help its friend, President Bashar al-Assad, as well as to assist Hezbollah by establishing a land bridge to carry weapons from Iran via Iraq and Syria.

For Israel, this has created a second hostile presence on its northern border, in addition to Hezbollah's.

In an effort to counter it and stop the flow of weaponry, Israel has conducted strikes inside Syria against arms shipments and other targets it claims are tied to Iran and its allies, killing Iranians in some cases, according to media reports.

Strikes against Iranian targets in Syria attributable to Israel increased after October 7.

Regional waters

Tit-for-tat assaults against commercial vessels began in 2019.

Although neither Israel nor Iran has admitted responsibility for the attacks on ships linked to each other, they are widely assumed to be behind them.

Targets have included Iranian tankers transporting oil bound for Syria, an Iranian ship off the coast of Yemen that acted as a floating base for the Revolutionary Guards, and cargo ships owned or associated to Israelis.

Yemen's Houthi rebels have interrupted transportation in the Red Sea, escalating the conflict by striking ships in solidarity with Hamas.

They claim they are targeting warships linked to Israel, as well as the US and UK, which have undertaken retaliatory strikes on Houthi targets.

However, ships without such linkages have been attacked.

Yemen

The Houthis, who have occupied northwestern Yemen since the civil war began in 2014, have also launched missiles and drones against Israel.

The majority have been intercepted, but a Houthi drone murdered a civilian in Tel Aviv in July. Israel has started retaliatory airstrikes against Yemen.

Iraq

Iran has conducted several attacks on Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region, accusing separatist organizations of working with foreign security services against it, since late 2022.

Multiple accounts indicate that Israel has previously used sites in northern Iraq to gather intelligence on Iran.

What about assaults within the two countries?

Israel and Iran first exchanged fire on each other's homelands in 2024. Iran conducted a huge missile and drone attack against Israel on April 13. It was sparked by a two-week-old airstrike on Iran's diplomatic buildings in Damascus, which was generally blamed on Israel but denied by Israel.

The strike killed seven Iranian military members, including the Revolutionary Guard's top commander. Iran's launch prompted a more limited response from Israel on April 19.

The barrages inflicted limited damage, but they set the stage for open, direct conflict between the two countries. Previously, Iran had primarily absorbed Israeli strikes on its Syrian interests.

In one exception, in 2018, its soldiers fired a volley of missiles against Israeli positions on the Golan Heights, a plateau Israel conquered from Syria in the 1967 war and later annexed. Israel responded with a far stronger show of force. Covert attacks in the two countries have becoming more regular.

Iran and Hamas both blame Israel for the death of Hamas head Haniyeh on July 31 in Tehran. Israel is widely believed to be responsible for the death of five Iranian nuclear scientists in Tehran since 2010, as well as multiple attacks on Iranian nuclear sites.

More than a decade ago, software known as Stuxnet disrupted operations at an Iranian nuclear enrichment facility in what is believed to have been a joint US-Israeli operation.

In October 2021, an Iranian general stated that Israel was most certainly responsible for a cyber strike that crippled gas outlets throughout Iran. In January 2023, two US publications stated that Israel was responsible for a drone strike on an Iranian munitions store near the central city of Isfahan.

Iran undertook cyber strikes, including a breach that attempted to destroy computers and water flow in two Israeli districts, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

The escalating cyber warfare between Israel and Iran has added a new dimension to their conflict, with both nations investing heavily in offensive and defensive cyber capabilities. These digital attacks have targeted critical infrastructure, military installations, and even civilian facilities, blurring the lines between traditional warfare and cyber operations. The potential for a major cyber attack to trigger a conventional military response has raised concerns among security experts about the risk of unintended escalation in the conflict.

How do the Israeli and Iranian militaries compare?

Israel's troops possess a significant technological advantage over Iran's. This is due in part to military and financial support from the United States, which has always worked to ensure Israel's advantage as part of its commitment to the Jewish state's security.

For example, Israel is the only Middle Eastern state to have purchased Lockheed Martin Corp.'s F-35 fighter jet, the most expensive weapons system ever. Israel is also widely thought to possess nuclear weapons, though it has never confirmed this capability.

Iran has enough enriched uranium to build many nuclear bombs if its leaders decide to refine the heavy metal to the 90% level commonly utilized in such weapons. It would still need to perfect the process of weaponizing the fuel in order to create an operational device capable of hitting a distant target.

Sanctions and political isolation have limited Iran's access to global military technology, prompting it to create its own weapons, such as the missiles and drones fired at Israel in April.

Iran's military aircraft are largely older planes that predate the country's 1979 revolution. The government seeks to strengthen its military capabilities through increased cooperation with Russia. So far, Iran's top priority is to acquire high-end Russian military equipment, such as Sukhoi Su-35 fighter fighters.

Despite its technological deficit, Iran's military is known to have a large stockpile of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as low-cost unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, which it used against Israel in April. As Iran discovered in that attack and the second one on October 1, overcoming Israel's formidable air defenses is difficult.

There's getting around Israeli Air Force fighters. Then there are Israel's Arrow and David's Sling air defense systems, as well as the interception capabilities of US and other regional allies.

Iran's defensive armament includes surface-to-air missile systems such as Russia's S-300, which fight planes and cruise missiles, as well as the locally manufactured Arman anti-ballistic missile system.

These aren't quite as battle-tested as Israel's defenses, demonstrating Iran's preference for asymmetric warfare, in which it can project enormous power, over head-on conflict.

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has had far-reaching consequences for the broader Middle East region, affecting diplomatic relations, economic stability, and regional security. Neighboring countries have been forced to navigate complex alliances and rivalries, often finding themselves caught between the two adversaries. The conflict has also contributed to the polarization of the region along sectarian lines, with Sunni-majority states generally aligning more closely with Israel, while Shia-majority countries tend to support Iran. This dynamic has further complicated efforts to achieve lasting peace and stability in the Middle East, as regional powers continue to vie for influence and pursue their own strategic interests.