TikTok's unexpected ally in the White House

[UNITED STATES] The popular video-sharing platform TikTok finds itself at a critical juncture as it faces the possibility of a ban in the United States. The app, which has become a cultural phenomenon and is used by half of the American population, is now looking to an unlikely savior: President-elect Donald Trump. This development marks a significant shift in the landscape of social media regulation and US-China tech tensions.

The Biden Administration's Stance

Under the current Biden administration, TikTok has been facing increasing scrutiny due to national security concerns. The primary issue stems from the fact that TikTok's parent company, ByteDance Ltd, is based in China. This connection has raised alarms about the potential for sensitive user data to be accessed by the Chinese government.

In response to these concerns, President Biden signed into law a measure that would effectively shut down TikTok in the United States unless ByteDance agrees to sell its prized asset to an American owner. This legislation, known as the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, has set a deadline of January 19 for the sale to occur.

Trump's Surprising Shift

Interestingly, President-elect Trump, who during his previous term had attempted to ban TikTok through an executive order, has recently expressed opposition to the idea of a TikTok ban. This change in stance has caught many by surprise, including members of his own party.

Trump's current position on TikTok was made clear in a statement in March: "The thing I don't like is that without TikTok, you're going to make Facebook bigger, and I consider Facebook to be an enemy of the people." He later reiterated this sentiment in an interview with Businessweek.

Potential Scenarios Under a Trump Presidency

With Trump's election, the dynamics surrounding TikTok's fate in the US have shifted dramatically. Glenn Gerstell, former National Security Agency General Counsel, stated, "They now are facing a president who is on the record as supporting a reversal of the ban." However, he cautioned that while the situation has improved for TikTok, it's "not a done deal".

Legal Challenges and Delays

One possibility is that Trump may not need to intervene directly. TikTok and ByteDance have already filed a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the divestment law. The US Court of Appeals in Washington is expected to rule on this case by December 6. Depending on the outcome, the legal process could extend well beyond the January 19 deadline, potentially delaying any action against TikTok for months.

Executive Action

If Trump does choose to act, he has several options at his disposal:

Finding an American Buyer: Trump could attempt to broker a deal for an American company to purchase TikTok. His former Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, has expressed interest in such an acquisition. However, ByteDance has consistently stated its unwillingness to sell TikTok's recommendation engine, which is crucial to the app's success.

Alternative Security Measures: The Trump administration might explore new ways to address national security concerns without requiring a full sale. This could involve an enhanced version of TikTok's Project Texas, which aims to isolate American user data from China with assistance from Oracle Corporation.

Legislative Action: Trump could urge Congress to repeal or amend the existing law. However, given the strong bipartisan support for the original bill, this approach faces significant challenges.

Selective Enforcement: Theoretically, Trump could direct the Justice Department to enforce the law selectively or not at all. This approach, however, could create complications for American tech companies like Apple and Google, who are required by the law to remove TikTok from their app stores.

The Role of National Security Briefings

It's important to note that Trump's perspective on TikTok may evolve once he returns to the White House and receives classified national security briefings. Sarah Kreps, director of the Tech Policy Institute at Cornell University's Brooks School of Public Policy, points out, "When he made those comments out of office, he was not privy to the intelligence that seems to have swayed a lot of members of Congress in 2023 and 2024".

The Elon Musk Factor

Another intriguing element in this scenario is the potential influence of Elon Musk, who played a significant role in Trump's re-election campaign. As the owner of X (formerly Twitter), Musk's advice on handling TikTok could be sought by Trump, potentially creating a conflict of interest.

Musk's stance on TikTok is complex. While he has stated that banning TikTok would be "contrary to freedom of speech and expression," his own platform, X, which has been expanding into video content, could benefit from TikTok's absence in the US market.

Implications for the Tech Industry and US-China Relations

The outcome of the TikTok situation under a Trump presidency could have far-reaching implications for the tech industry and US-China relations:

Data Privacy and Security

Regardless of the final decision on TikTok, the controversy has brought issues of data privacy and security to the forefront of public discourse. Tech companies may face increased pressure to demonstrate robust data protection measures, especially those with international operations.

Digital Sovereignty

The TikTok case highlights the growing tension between global digital platforms and national sovereignty. How the US handles this situation could set precedents for other countries grappling with similar issues.

US-China Tech Relations

The resolution of the TikTok controversy will likely have broader implications for US-China tech relations. It could either ease tensions or exacerbate the ongoing tech cold war between the two nations.

Competition in the Social Media Landscape

A potential ban or forced sale of TikTok could significantly alter the competitive landscape in the social media industry. It could provide opportunities for other platforms to gain market share or inspire the creation of new, domestically-owned alternatives.

The fate of TikTok in the United States remains uncertain as the country transitions to a new administration under President-elect Donald Trump. While Trump's previous opposition to a TikTok ban offers a glimmer of hope for the platform, the complex interplay of national security concerns, legal challenges, and political considerations makes the outcome difficult to predict.

As this situation unfolds, it will undoubtedly have significant implications for social media regulation, data privacy, and the broader landscape of US-China tech relations. The resolution of the TikTok controversy could set important precedents for how democratic nations balance national security concerns with the global nature of digital platforms in an increasingly interconnected world.