Europe on alert as Russia expands military presence

[EUROPE] As Russia escalates its military presence and hybrid operations near European borders, and with U.S. security commitments in doubt, European leaders face mounting pressure to rearm and redefine their defense strategy for a new era of uncertainty.

Russia’s Expanding Military Footprint

While the world’s attention remains fixed on the war in Ukraine, European security officials are increasingly alarmed by a series of Russian military moves along the continent’s northeastern frontier. In recent months, President Vladimir Putin has ordered the expansion of military bases, construction of new barracks, and upgrades to arsenals and railroads near the borders with Finland and the Baltic states-far from the Ukrainian front lines. These enhancements are designed to accommodate tens of thousands of additional troops, signaling Moscow’s intent to bolster its presence in regions that have historically been flashpoints between Russia and NATO.

According to Western intelligence, these preparations are not mere posturing. The Dutch Ministry of Defence recently warned that Russia could be ready for a large-scale troop movement-potentially involving hundreds of thousands of soldiers-within a year of any ceasefire in Ukraine. Similar assessments from German and Danish agencies suggest that Russia could test NATO’s resolve as early as 2030, with the Baltic region seen as a likely target for such an operation.

Hybrid Warfare: Sabotage and Subversion

Beyond conventional military buildups, Russia has intensified its campaign of sabotage and subversion across Europe. A new database compiled by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reveals that Russian attacks on European and U.S. targets nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024, targeting transportation infrastructure, government facilities, and critical industry. These operations-often orchestrated by Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU-have included explosive attacks, cyber intrusions, and the deliberate severing of undersea data cables and pipelines.

Notable incidents include attacks on railway systems in Germany and Poland, and the damaging of subsea cables in the Baltic Sea by ships with Russian ties. These hybrid tactics are designed to sow chaos, disrupt logistics, and test the resilience of European societies.

Ukraine: The Front Line of European Security

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains central to Europe’s security calculus. Russia’s 2025 spring offensive has seen a surge in troop deployments-an estimated 67,000 Russian soldiers have been massed near the Sumy border alone, with plans to increase the grouping in Ukraine by an additional 150,000 troops this year. The intensity of fighting has escalated, with daily combat engagements rising by 30% since March, and Russian advances reported in several key regions.

European defense experts warn that a Russian victory or a ceasefire favorable to Moscow would free up significant military resources, enabling Russia to reconstitute its forces and pose a direct threat to NATO’s eastern flank within a few years. “If Russia is allowed to achieve its goals in Ukraine, its territorial ambition will extend beyond,” a recent EU strategy paper cautioned.

Europe’s Response: Rearmament and Strategic Realignment

In response to these threats, European leaders have launched an unprecedented drive to rearm and strengthen the continent’s defense capabilities. The European Commission’s “Readiness 2030” plan, unveiled in March, aims to mobilize up to €800 billion for defense investments, allowing member states to allocate up to 1.5% of GDP to military spending without violating fiscal rules. The plan also facilitates joint procurement of military hardware and support for Ukraine’s defense industry.

European defense spending has already increased by over 30% since 2021, but experts argue that far more is needed to fill the gap left by a potential U.S. withdrawal from NATO. Estimates suggest Europe would need to mobilize an additional 300,000 troops and invest at least €250 billion annually to match the deterrent power currently provided by U.S. forces.

U.S. Commitment in Question

The urgency of Europe’s rearmament is compounded by uncertainty over the future of the transatlantic alliance. President Donald Trump’s recent statements have cast doubt on America’s willingness to uphold NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense guarantee, criticizing European allies for insufficient defense spending and hinting at a possible reduction of U.S. troop presence on the continent. This shift has forced European leaders to confront the possibility of defending themselves without American support-a scenario many experts believe Europe is not yet prepared to handle.

The Nuclear Dimension and Political Risks

Amid these developments, Russia has continued to issue veiled nuclear threats, aiming to deter European military buildups and exploit divisions within the EU. While most analysts assess the risk of nuclear escalation as low, the psychological impact of such threats remains significant, especially as Europe grapples with the challenge of replacing U.S. nuclear assurances with its own limited arsenal.

Political instability within Europe-driven by rising populism and divergent threat perceptions-further complicates the continent’s response. Some Western European leaders remain skeptical of the immediacy of the Russian threat, while countries closer to Russia’s border, such as Poland and the Baltic states, are pushing for rapid and robust action.

Outlook: A New Era for European Security

As Russia’s military moves and hybrid operations continue to unsettle the continent, Europe stands at a crossroads. The coming years will test the EU’s ability to forge a unified defense policy, invest in its own security, and deter further Russian aggression-potentially without the traditional backing of the United States.

“We are not at war, but we are not at peace either,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently remarked, underscoring the precariousness of the current security environment.

For now, the message from Brussels and national capitals is clear: Europe must act decisively to secure its future, or risk being caught off guard by the next phase of Russian ambition.