Europe’s strategic drift in a US-China world

[EUROPE] As Washington accelerates its strategic agenda and Beijing extends its global influence, the European Union remains mired in ambiguity. Brussels’ ongoing struggle to define a unified approach toward China has left the bloc increasingly exposed at a moment when strategic independence is more crucial than ever.

Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, internal fractures within the EU have only deepened. Member states remain divided between those advocating engagement with China as a hedge against American unpredictability, and others backing closer alignment with Washington’s more confrontational posture. Even traditional EU anchors like France and Germany have been unable to reconcile these differences, forcing smaller nations to chart their own course amid the widening gulf. Beijing has taken notice. Behind closed doors, Chinese officials have voiced exasperation over Europe’s failure to act as a unified geopolitical actor.

Trump’s re-election has jolted European diplomacy out of its long-held deference to U.S. leadership, laying bare the consequences of years spent leaning on transatlantic ties. Now faced with a more aggressive U.S. administration, the EU finds itself urgently needing a pragmatic relationship with China—but lacking the institutional blueprint to construct one. In contrast, Beijing had anticipated a firmer, more strategic response from Brussels and is growing increasingly disillusioned.

Complicating matters further is a recalibration underway in China itself. Once seen as a potential ally in counterbalancing American dominance, Europe is now regarded in Beijing with growing skepticism. Leaked Chinese diplomatic communications from March reveal a shift in tone, with one high-ranking official likening the EU to “a choir without a conductor.” Frustrated by the bloc’s inertia, China has begun circumventing Brussels entirely, pursuing bilateral agreements with individual EU member states—an approach that steadily erodes European unity and influence.

Three months into Trump’s second term, the EU has yet to present a coordinated response to Washington’s increasingly unilateral moves. What Beijing sees instead is a bloc caught in the throes of indecision—its paralysis stemming not only from transatlantic uncertainty but also from its incoherent stance on China.

Within the European Commission, there is an acute awareness of the urgency, yet efforts to forge consensus remain bogged down by procedural delays and divergent national interests. A draft strategy on China, circulated earlier this year, has stalled amid contentious debates over trade protections and human rights. Meanwhile, Chinese investments in key European sectors—from seaports to technology—continue largely unchecked, further constraining the EU’s strategic options.

Experts caution that time is running out. Without a comprehensive China policy, Europe risks being sidelined in the escalating rivalry between the world’s two superpowers. “The window for Europe to assert itself is rapidly closing,” warns Sophia Müller, senior fellow at the Berlin Institute for Geopolitics. “Unless Brussels can articulate a clear and unified vision, the EU will be left reacting to decisions made in Washington and Beijing—without a voice in shaping its own destiny.”