US tariffs and the ripple effects on global security and Singapore’s economy

[SINGAPORE] The United States' sweeping tariffs on imports could destabilise global security and upend the rules-based international system, said Singapore's Home Affairs and Law Minister K. Shanmugam on April 17.

Speaking at the Home Team Promotion Ceremony, Mr Shanmugam stressed that the erosion of multilateral trade norms would force countries to rely more heavily on themselves for security and stability.

His comments follow US President Donald Trump’s announcement on April 2 of new blanket tariffs — a 10 per cent baseline duty on all imported goods, including those from Singapore, along with higher retaliatory tariffs on at least 60 trading partners.

The measures have drawn strong condemnation from global leaders and economists, who warn they could spark a protectionist wave and derail the fragile post-pandemic economic recovery. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has projected that if such measures intensify, global trade growth could slow by up to 1.8 per cent in 2024, exacerbating supply chain disruptions and driving up prices worldwide.

“We don’t know if the world as we know it is gone for good, or if Mr Trump might change course. But it’s going to be a tough environment,” said Mr Shanmugam. “When the US puts up barriers, others will have no choice but to follow suit.”

He noted that Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and other like-minded leaders are actively collaborating to protect and preserve the global trading system.

Regional alliances, including ASEAN, are considering backup plans to soften the blow. Analysts believe that stronger intra-Asian trade ties and enhanced digital trade initiatives could help cushion the impact — though they caution that no regional effort can fully replace access to the massive US market.

“It won’t replace the Americans, who make up one-third of global consumption. But some order is better than none,” Mr Shanmugam said, referring to PM Wong’s remarks at the 14th S. Rajaratnam Lecture a day earlier.

Held at Orchard Hotel, the Home Team Promotion Ceremony recognised over 380 officers who were promoted to senior ranks such as lieutenant-colonel and superintendent. The event also spotlighted the Home Team’s expanding mandate in confronting non-traditional threats, including cybercrime and cross-border scams.

Mr Shanmugam linked the rising economic uncertainty with an expected surge in crime and security challenges. “With economic vibrancy likely to be affected, jobs could be lost — including in Singapore. Financial stress creates fertile ground for crime,” he warned.

According to the Singapore Police Force, scam cases have surged 22 per cent year-on-year, reinforcing the need for tighter coordination among agencies and greater public awareness. The tariffs could have wider implications for Singapore’s economy, said Mr Shanmugam, given its heavy reliance on global trade. Beyond job creation, public services could come under strain as the Government’s fiscal space is squeezed.

“Our ability to collect taxes, fund healthcare, and maintain social spending — all of it will be under pressure. That’s where these global economic shifts directly intersect with national security,” he said. Addressing officers at the event, he added, “We can prepare our people to rise to the challenge. And I have every confidence — as does the leadership — that the Home Team will meet it head-on.”

Among those recognised was SCDF Colonel Tay Zhi Wei, 41, who led an 80-member team to earthquake-struck Myanmar from March 29 to April 8 as part of Operation Lionheart. He was promoted from lieutenant-colonel.

Reflecting on the mission, Col Tay said it underscored the importance of Singapore’s well-developed emergency response systems. “It reminded me why we do what we do: to bring hope, comfort and life-saving assistance where it’s needed most,” he said. “Firefighting and rescue work will push you to your limits, but it also forges deep bonds and a strong sense of purpose.”

Also promoted was Dr Hee Hwan Ing, 56, deputy director at the Home Team Medical Services Division. Formerly a paediatric anaesthesiologist at KK Women’s and Children’s Hospital, she made a mid-career shift into public health after more than two decades in clinical practice. “To make the switch, I pursued further studies in epidemiology and regulatory science,” she said. “It was a way to extend my contributions beyond the hospital setting.”

Now focused on building in-house medical capabilities within the Home Team, Dr Hee aims to apply population health principles to strengthen operational readiness. She also hopes to mentor the next generation of medical professionals. “I believe in continuous learning and contributing wherever I can. This role is a natural extension of the work I’ve always cared about — safeguarding health and wellbeing.”