The United Kingdom is on the brink of a significant political event with the upcoming General Election on July 4, 2024. As the Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, stands a chance to unseat the Conservative Party under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, financial analysts are keenly observing the potential implications for the U.K. stock market and currency. Historical data provides valuable insights into how such political shifts have previously influenced market dynamics.
Historical data from Citi reveals that the MSCI UK index of large- to mid-cap stocks has experienced notable fluctuations in response to election outcomes. Specifically, the index has shown an average increase of approximately 6% six months post-Labour victories and a decrease of around 5% following Conservative wins. This trend is also evident in the more domestically-oriented FTSE 250, which has historically outperformed the FTSE 100 following elections, particularly after Labour victories.
Defensive stocks and financials have tended to perform well post-elections, while energy stocks have shown strength regardless of the winning party. However, it is essential to consider broader economic factors that may influence these trends. For instance, Capital Economics' Chief Markets Economist John Higgins cautions against attributing the underperformance of U.K. stocks solely to Labour governments. He points out that five crashes in the British pound over the last century can be linked to broader factors, such as unsustainable fixed exchange rate regimes and financial crises.
Despite historical trends, the lack of significant fiscal differences between the Labour and Conservative parties implies that the outlook for both sterling and U.K. government bonds, or gilts, will remain closely tied to the interest rate outlook. According to Joe Tuckey, head of FX analysis at Argentex Group, modest sterling gains are expected in the coming weeks, with little reaction to the election outcome itself.
Inflation and the Bank of England's rate policy are expected to be more influential in determining price moves than the election result. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has stated that inflation has returned to 'normal,' suggesting that monetary policy will play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics post-election.
While the upcoming U.K. General Election could have a neutral to positive impact on the stock market, historical data suggests that broader economic factors and monetary policies will play a more significant role in determining market trends. As financial analysts continue to monitor the political landscape, investors should remain cautious and consider the potential implications of both domestic and global economic conditions.
