[EUROPE] The US State Department said it was "incredibly" concerned about Russia's hybrid warfare effort against the West, amid fears that it may grow following Ukraine's first use of US-made long-range missiles on targets within Russia, after the Biden administration eased limitations on their deployment.
Russia has promised a "appropriate" response to the new policy and has participated in nuclear bluster by revising its nuclear doctrine in recent days. Western authorities, on the other hand, feel that the brunt of Russia's response may come from elsewhere in the world rather than the Ukrainian battlefield.
Potential hybrid assaults may take several forms, including increasing its campaign of sabotage and assassination in Europe or further arming US opponents in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific regions, according to those familiar with the conversations about a possible Russian reaction.
The escalation of tensions between Russia and the West has raised concerns about the potential for a wider conflict. Experts warn that Russia's hybrid warfare tactics could extend beyond traditional military operations, potentially targeting critical infrastructure, financial systems, and even social media platforms to sow discord and confusion among Western allies. This multifaceted approach poses significant challenges for NATO and its partners, requiring a coordinated and comprehensive strategy to counter these threats effectively.
European ministers met in Brussels on Tuesday to examine Russia's asymmetric warfare. The foreign ministers of France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom accused Russia of "systematically attacking European security architecture" in a joint statement.
Speaking in Washington, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller stated: "In general, we are extremely concerned about Russia's hybrid warfare in Europe and around the world, and we have been working closely with our European allies as well as other allies and partners around the world." Referring to the recent sabotage of two undersea fibre-optic communication cables in the Baltic Sea, Miller stated that Russia would be "held accountable" for similar activities in the future.
Russia may choose to postpone further escalation ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration, when he has pledged to withdraw aid to Ukraine and mediate a peace solution that is widely thought to benefit Russia.
The potential shift in US foreign policy under a new administration has added another layer of complexity to the situation. Analysts suggest that Russia may be strategically timing its actions to exploit political transitions in the West, particularly in the United States. This calculated approach could test the resolve and unity of NATO allies, as differing views on how to engage with Russia emerge among member states.
The New York Times stated that the first Ukrainian attack with Atacms targeted an armaments facility in the Bryansk region, citing US and Ukrainian authorities. The territory is located north-west of the Kursk region, where a Ukrainian incursion has been underway since early August.
Volodomyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, did not directly confirm the Bryansk attack, but did state, "We now have Atacms, Ukrainian long-range capabilities, and we will use them."
According to Russia's defense ministry, five of the missiles were shot down, while another was damaged. The ministry also stated that debris from the rockets ignited a fire at an undisclosed military location. A US official told the Associated Press that only two missiles were intercepted.
Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, has promised a "appropriate" response to the first use of US-made missiles, which Vladimir Putin has previously stated would amount to Washington and its NATO allies entering direct combat with Russia.
The revelations came hours after Vladimir Putin signed a revamped nuclear doctrine that reduced the threshold for using nuclear weapons. A spokesperson for the US National Security Council downplayed the decision, saying it had been planned for weeks and that "observing no changes to Russia's nuclear posture, we have not seen any reason to adjust our own nuclear posture or doctrine in response to Russia's statements today".
The UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, stated that he will not be deterred by the new philosophy from backing Ukraine. "There is irresponsible rhetoric coming from Russia, but that will not deter our support for Ukraine," he told reporters at the G20 summit in Brazil.
Behind the scenes, US and European authorities have addressed the possibility of Russia ramping up a massive campaign of attacks against US and European infrastructure, which has intensified dramatically since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
In a joint statement, UK and EU ministers stated that Russia's hybrid strikes were "escalating" and "unprecedented in their variety and scale, creating significant security risks".
"NATO and [the] EU have to do a lot more to protect this critical infrastructure," the Finnish defense minister, Antti Häkkänen, told Politico. "We know that Russia has [the] capability and willingness to do sabotage in Europe."
Earlier this month, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that Russia was carrying out a "intensifying campaign of hybrid attacks" that demonstrated that the "frontline in this war is no longer solely in Ukraine." The frontline is increasingly expanding beyond boundaries to include the Baltic region, western Europe, and even the high north."
Intelligence services are presently probing recent damage to cables in the Baltic Sea, which were severed in quick succession earlier this week.
Boris Pistorius, Germany's defence minister, stated on Tuesday that the damage was believed to be the result of sabotage. "No one thinks the cables were accidentally damaged. I also don't want to believe that the ships' anchors caused the damage by accident," he added.
If that conclusion is validated, it must have been prepared before the United States authorized the firing of Atacms missiles inside Russian boundaries.
According to a person briefed on the discussions, Europe may see an uptick in state-sponsored attacks, such as sabotage and arson, assassinations, and attacks on military sites, transportation, and telecom infrastructure.
One former top European defense official branded the EU as "totally unprepared" to deal with Moscow's expanding hybrid warfare.
The former official, who just left their position, stated that Europe lacked the resources to confront Russian sabotage efforts, which they fear would increase following Biden's decision to arm Ukraine with long-range missiles.
A top European security source called the new round of attacks as "closer to terrorism, with the aim of intimidating the population, influencing decision-making, and undermining support for Ukraine."
Earlier this year, US and German intelligence reportedly disrupted a Russian conspiracy to assassinate several defense sector executives in Europe, including Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger.
The revelation of assassination plots targeting defense industry leaders has sent shockwaves through European capitals. This escalation in covert operations highlights the lengths to which Russia may go to undermine Western support for Ukraine. Security agencies across Europe are now on high alert, implementing enhanced protective measures for key figures in the defense sector and reassessing their counterintelligence strategies to prevent future attempts.
Russia might also strengthen its backing for Iran and its regional proxy partners, such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The United States, which provides Ukraine with armament and targeting intelligence, has stated that the decision to enable Atacms strikes was made in response to the admission of more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers into the conflict, and that it would target their capabilities.
In October, the US envoy to the UN, Robert Wood, warned that Pyongyang's men entering Ukraine "will undoubtedly return in body bags".
The US and Ukraine have not verified the use of the missiles, but Ukraine's general staff stated in a statement on Tuesday that it hit a military stockpile at the 1046th logistics center outside of Karachev.
"The destruction of ammunition depots will continue for the army of the Russian occupiers in order to stop the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine," according to the statement.
According to Russian independent media, residents in Karachev heard explosions overnight. Several films circulating online, supposedly from the Karachev region, included the sound of detonations and apparent flashes.
"This is, of course, a sign that they want to escalate," Lavrov told reporters at the G20 conference, adding that a "new phase of war by the west" would be interpreted as Russia.
Following US clearance, Britain is set to supply its own Storm Shadow missiles for use by Ukraine against targets inside Russia.
While Moscow has pledged vengeance, some observers believe the country's combat choices are limited, and it is unlikely to use nuclear weapons.
"The most predictable and obvious will be an increase in strikes against Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure facilities in anticipation of the winter cold," said political expert Anton Barbashin.
He also stated that the employment of Western-supplied long-range weaponry is unlikely to serve as a clear red line for Moscow.
"Strikes with long-range Atacms missiles on the territory of Russia … are more likely to fall into the list of red lines that will be crossed and will cease to be red lines," according to Barbashin.
The evolving nature of "red lines" in this conflict presents a significant challenge for both sides. As the boundaries of acceptable military action continue to shift, there is growing concern about the potential for miscalculation or unintended escalation. Diplomatic channels remain crucial in managing these tensions, with international mediators working behind the scenes to establish clear communication protocols and de-escalation mechanisms between Russia and NATO allies.
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