Trump's tariffs push Japan and South Korea closer to China

[WORLD] As the United States under former President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on a wide range of imports, including key products from East Asia, Japan and South Korea found themselves facing difficult choices about their economic future. Now, experts warn that Trump's trade policies may inadvertently push these two economic giants closer to China’s growing sphere of influence. The shifting dynamics could reshape regional alliances and challenge the long-standing U.S.-led economic order in Asia.

The trade war ignited by the Trump administration’s tariffs, particularly those on steel, aluminum, and a range of other goods, has had lasting effects on global economic relations. While the U.S. hoped to bolster its domestic industries by imposing these tariffs, the unintended consequence has been a gradual shift in the economic alignments of East Asia. Two nations at the forefront of this change are Japan and South Korea—key U.S. allies with strong economic ties to both the U.S. and China.

Japan and South Korea have long depended on the U.S. as a crucial trade partner and security ally. However, the imposition of U.S. tariffs has strained these relations, leading many to reconsider their dependence on American economic leadership. With China emerging as an increasingly dominant force in the region, both countries are finding themselves navigating a delicate balancing act between maintaining relations with Washington and pursuing deeper ties with Beijing.

The Impact of Tariffs on Japan and South Korea

In 2018, the Trump administration introduced tariffs on a host of Chinese goods, but also levied tariffs on allies such as Japan and South Korea. For Japan, the U.S. tariffs were especially disruptive to its automotive sector, one of its most important industries. South Korea, a major exporter of steel and electronics, also faced similar challenges as the U.S. imposed duties that directly impacted its manufacturing sector.

These tariffs, alongside Washington’s increasingly confrontational stance on trade with China, left Japan and South Korea in a precarious position. Historically, both nations have relied on the U.S. not only for trade but also for security in the face of North Korean aggression and China’s growing military power. But as U.S. trade policies shifted unpredictably under Trump, both countries began to reconsider how much they should continue relying on Washington.

China’s Rising Influence in East Asia

As the U.S. pulled back from some of its trade commitments, China stepped into the void. Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a vast infrastructure project designed to deepen China’s economic ties across Asia and beyond, became an attractive option for many countries looking to maintain growth and stability. Both Japan and South Korea have recognized the need to engage with China’s economic juggernaut, even as they try to avoid jeopardizing their longstanding alliances with the U.S.

Japan, which had maintained a cautious stance towards China for decades, has increasingly found itself in Beijing’s economic orbit. The Japanese government has signed several bilateral trade agreements with China, and Chinese investment in Japanese infrastructure and technology has grown significantly in recent years. While Japan remains deeply integrated with Western economies, its economic future is becoming more interdependent with China’s as the region's trade dynamics shift.

South Korea, too, has sought to balance its economic ties with the U.S. and China. Although South Korea remains firmly aligned with the U.S. on security issues, its trade with China—its largest trading partner—has surged. South Korean companies such as Samsung and Hyundai are heavily invested in China, and the two countries have worked together on various trade and economic initiatives. The risks of antagonizing China in favor of adhering to U.S. tariff policies have led to growing concerns among South Korean policymakers about the long-term sustainability of their economic alliances.

The Economic and Political Ramifications

The growing economic interdependence of Japan and South Korea with China presents a challenge for the U.S. in its quest to counter Beijing's rising influence. While Japan and South Korea are not likely to abandon their military and political alliances with the U.S. entirely, the changing economic landscape could lead to a weakening of the traditional U.S.-led order in East Asia. Both nations could find themselves increasingly caught in a geopolitical tug-of-war between Washington and Beijing.

In addition to the economic shift, the political ramifications of these changes could be significant. For example, South Korea has already expressed frustration with the U.S. over its demands for a larger financial commitment to stationing U.S. troops in the country. If the U.S. continues to push its allies into economically precarious positions, Japan and South Korea may see China as a more stable partner in the long term.

Potential Solutions and Responses

Both Japan and South Korea have sought to minimize the economic damage caused by U.S. tariffs by diversifying their trade partnerships and pursuing closer economic ties with regional players, including China. However, there is also a growing recognition in both countries of the need to strengthen their economic relationships with the U.S. to counterbalance China’s influence. This includes continuing efforts to negotiate trade deals and reduce tariff barriers with Washington.

Moreover, regional trade initiatives such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) offer an alternative path for Japan and South Korea to reinforce their economic ties with other nations in the Asia-Pacific region. As China’s economic clout grows, these countries may look to bolster multilateral agreements that provide a counterweight to Beijing’s rising power.

While the Trump administration’s tariffs have succeeded in reshaping global trade dynamics, their long-term impact on U.S.-Asia relations remains uncertain. Japan and South Korea find themselves at a crossroads, balancing their economic and security interests between the U.S. and China. The next chapter in East Asia’s geopolitical and economic landscape will depend on how these countries navigate the complex interplay of trade, diplomacy, and regional power. What is clear is that the tariffs of the past may have set the stage for a new economic order in East Asia, one that may tilt further toward China’s growing influence.