[MIDDLE EAST] The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has presented Israel with a unique opportunity to reshape the region's geopolitical landscape. As the war in Gaza continues and tensions escalate across multiple fronts, Israeli leaders and strategists are envisioning a new Middle East that aligns more closely with their national interests and security objectives.
The assassination of Hamas's Deputy Leader Saleh Al-Arouri in Beirut on January 2, 2024, marked the beginning of a year filled with significant developments in the region1. This bold move by Israel set the tone for a series of actions aimed at dismantling the leadership structures of its adversaries and asserting its military dominance.
As the conflict expanded beyond Gaza, Israel found itself engaged in multiple military confrontations, pursuing the total defeat of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran's proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. This multi-front approach has been driven by Israel's desire to shift the regional balance of power in its favor, particularly against Iran.
Reshaping Lebanon and Beyond
The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024 marked a turning point in the conflict, disrupting Israel's previous strategic dominance and altering the geopolitical landscape. Operation New Order, as it was dubbed by Israel, demonstrated the country's belief that removing key leadership figures could be a "game changer" for regional dynamics.
In the wake of Nasrallah's assassination, Israel has significantly ramped up its military operations in Lebanon. September 2024 saw over 1,700 Israeli strikes on Lebanon, a more than 125% increase from the previous month. This escalation has exposed a significant portion of Lebanon's population to conflict, with ACLED's Conflict Exposure Calculator estimating that 32% of the population was affected in September, up from 13% in August.
The Vision of a New Middle East
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been vocal about his intentions to reshape the region. In the hours following Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023, Netanyahu declared, "We are going to change the Middle East". This statement reflects a broader Israeli strategy to use the current conflict as a catalyst for regional transformation.
Israeli Ambassador to the US, Mike Herzog, echoed this sentiment, stating, "The American administration ... did not limit us in time. They, too, understand that following Nasrallah's assassination, there is a new situation in Lebanon and there is a chance for reshaping".
Challenges and Risks
While Israel sees an opportunity for regional transformation, this approach is not without significant risks and challenges. The aggressive military actions and expansionist policies have the potential to unite diverse factions against Israel and reignite the centrality of the Palestinian issue in the Arab world.
The ongoing conflict has also strained Israel's relationships with its neighbors and the international community. The extensive military operations in Gaza and Lebanon have resulted in significant civilian casualties and humanitarian crises, drawing criticism from global leaders and human rights organizations.
The Role of the United States
The United States, as Israel's primary ally, plays a crucial role in shaping the outcome of this conflict and its aftermath. The Biden administration has been working to prevent a broader regional war, particularly as the US presidential election approaches.
However, the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House in January 2025 could significantly alter the dynamics. While some in Israel see Trump's potential return as an opportunity to achieve maximalist aims, Trump himself has expressed a desire to calm the region.
The Iranian Factor
Iran remains a central concern for Israel in its regional strategy. Israel's actions aim to freeze Iran's nuclear program, restrict its military capabilities, and diminish its regional influence by dismantling its armed network. The assassination of key figures in the "axis of resistance" and strikes on Iranian assets in Syria and Yemen are part of this broader strategy.
Looking Ahead: Scenarios for 2024 and Beyond
As the conflict continues to evolve, several potential scenarios for the region's future have emerged. These range from maintaining a precarious status quo to the possibility of a limited or total war engulfing the entire Middle East.
The Clingendael Institute outlines four main scenarios:
A fight for the status quo: Continuing current tensions with the constant threat of escalation.
Shifting red lines: A gradual escalation of conflict without full-scale war.
Limited war: High-intensity conflict in specific areas of the region.
Total war: A full-scale regional conflict involving multiple countries and actors.
The proximity of these scenario pathways means that tipping points can swiftly transform one scenario into another, highlighting the volatility of the current situation.
As Israel pursues its vision of a reshaped Middle East, the region stands at a critical juncture. The actions taken in the coming months will have far-reaching consequences for regional stability, international relations, and the lives of millions of people across the Middle East.
While Israel sees an opportunity to solidify its position as a dominant regional power, the risks of further escalation and unintended consequences loom large. The international community, particularly the United States, will play a crucial role in determining whether this period of conflict leads to a new, stable regional order or plunges the Middle East into a wider, more devastating war.
As the situation continues to evolve, it is clear that the events of 2024 will shape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East for years to come. Whether this reshaping aligns with Israel's vision or leads to unforeseen challenges remains to be seen.
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