As we look ahead to the year 2034, the landscape of food is poised for significant transformation. Driven by the twin pressures of climate change and a growing global population, the way we produce, consume, and think about food is set to undergo dramatic changes. According to a report by Synthesis, a data consultancy agency, two primary scenarios could shape our culinary future: radical transformation and resilient adaptation.
Radical Transformation: Embracing Change
The radical transformation scenario envisions a world where humanity has proactively addressed climate change, resulting in a shift towards more sustainable food practices. This future is characterized by a widespread adoption of plant-based diets, regenerative farming, and a significant reduction in food waste. As Lee Fordham, founder of Synthesis, notes, "It's about making sense of lots of different data like greenhouse gas emissions or population growth... to try and imagine what the world will look like 10 years from now".
In this scenario, people embrace native ingredients and innovative food sources such as shellfish and insects. The focus is on upcycling food waste and adopting zero-waste production methods. Ethical consumerism becomes the norm, with individuals opting for green products and businesses prioritizing sustainability. Culinary experts like Oliver Truesdale-Jutras and Blair Chrichton are already designing future-forward menus featuring ingredients like coconut copra, regeneratively-grown greens, and meals crafted from food waste.
Despite its promise, the likelihood of achieving this radical transformation is estimated at only 37.4%. This is largely due to the challenges of implementing change across various levels of society, from governments to consumers. However, if successful, this model could lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
Resilient Adaptation: Navigating Constraints
The more probable scenario, with a 62% likelihood, is resilient adaptation. In this future, the world has been slower to address climate change, leading to a reliance on technology and science to cope with new constraints. This path involves adapting to harsher environmental conditions and utilizing climate-resistant food sources like jellyfish and cell-cultivated meats.
Fordham explains, "We are much more likely to be on the path of a resilient adaptation, reacting to the new constraints that we have instead of a radical transformation". As natural resources become scarcer, technology plays a crucial role in extending the lifespan of bio-engineered foods and introducing unconventional nutrients like solein, a protein derived from air.
In this scenario, traditional agriculture struggles, and people must innovate with available resources. Chefs like Matt Orlando are exploring undervalued food sources, creating menus that reflect the realities of a resource-constrained world. Future menus might include synthetic food sources, nutrient supplements, and innovative products like cocoa-free chocolate and bean-free coffee.
Technological Innovations and Future Foods
Both scenarios highlight the importance of technological advancements in shaping the future of food. Innovations such as carbon conversion technology, smart fridges, and fermentation processes are expected to play a significant role in food production and preservation. These technologies aim to enhance food security, reduce waste, and create novel food products that meet the nutritional needs of a growing population.
Cultural and Ethical Considerations
As we move towards 2034, cultural and ethical considerations will also influence food choices. The shift towards plant-based diets and sustainable practices reflects a broader awareness of the environmental impact of food production. Consumers are becoming more conscious of the ethical implications of their food choices, driving demand for transparency and accountability in the food industry.
The future of food in 2034 is shaped by the choices we make today. Whether through radical transformation or resilient adaptation, the food industry must navigate the challenges of climate change and population growth. By embracing innovation, sustainability, and ethical practices, we can create a future where food is not only abundant but also environmentally and socially responsible. As Fordham aptly puts it, "If we are faster to act and open to having a much more abundant, more diverse diet, then in this world of radical transformation – there’s also many solutions that exist".
