Is the birth crisis in China going to be resolved by free preschool education?

[WORLD] In recent years, China has faced a severe demographic crisis, with the birthrate steadily declining and an aging population that could potentially cripple the nation's future economic prospects. The problem is so dire that some experts have raised alarms about the long-term viability of the country’s workforce. In response to this issue, the Chinese government has started to explore various strategies to reverse the trend, including a bold proposal to offer free preschool education for all children. But is free preschool education the solution to China’s birth crisis, or merely a temporary fix to a much deeper societal issue?

The Birth Crisis in China

China’s population is aging rapidly, and its birthrate has fallen to the lowest level since the founding of the People’s Republic of China. In 2022, China’s population declined for the first time in decades, a clear indicator that the birthrate is not replenishing the workforce at the pace needed to sustain economic growth. The country’s fertility rate has dropped well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, and by 2050, it is expected that one-third of China’s population will be over the age of 60.

This demographic shift is the result of a combination of factors. The long-standing one-child policy, which was only phased out in 2015, drastically reduced the number of children born each year. In addition, high living costs, particularly in urban areas, and the pressures of modern life have made many young couples hesitant to have more than one child. This trend is not isolated to China alone, as many developed countries face similar challenges. However, China’s birth crisis is compounded by its rapidly aging population and a shrinking workforce.

The Proposal: Free Preschool Education

One of the most discussed solutions to China’s birth crisis has been the proposal to offer free preschool education for all children. This move is being considered by the Chinese government as part of a broader effort to reverse the birthrate decline and reduce the financial burden on families raising children. The thinking behind this proposal is straightforward: If families are not burdened by the high costs of early childhood education, they may be more likely to have more children.

“The government should provide free kindergarten education for all children, which will help alleviate the financial pressure on families and encourage them to have more children,” said Zhang Xiaoqiang, a former official at China’s National Development and Reform Commission, in an interview with the SCMP. Zhang's comments reflect the idea that the financial cost of raising children is a significant factor in the decision to have more offspring. With education being one of the largest expenses for families, especially in urban areas, offering it for free would lower the financial barrier and make having multiple children more affordable.

The Economic Rationale Behind Free Preschool Education

There are compelling economic arguments for providing free preschool education. One of the biggest barriers to having children in China is the cost of raising them, especially when it comes to education. According to a report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the average cost of raising a child in urban areas can exceed 500,000 yuan (about $70,000) from birth to the age of 18. This includes not only the direct costs of education but also housing, healthcare, and other living expenses. For many families, particularly those in major cities, these costs are prohibitive.

Free preschool education could ease the financial strain on parents, particularly those with lower incomes. It would also give working parents the opportunity to return to their careers without the additional burden of childcare expenses. In turn, this could lead to an increase in the fertility rate, as families may feel more confident in their ability to manage the costs of raising multiple children.

Moreover, investing in early childhood education has long-term economic benefits. Studies have shown that children who attend preschool are more likely to perform better academically, have higher earning potential, and experience fewer social problems as they grow older. By investing in early childhood education, China could potentially raise a more educated and skilled future workforce, which is essential for the country’s continued economic growth.

The Political and Social Context

The push for free preschool education comes amid a broader government effort to address the country’s demographic challenges. The Chinese government has already implemented a range of policies to encourage higher birth rates, including offering financial incentives to families, extending maternity leave, and loosening restrictions on the number of children a family can have. However, these measures have not been enough to reverse the decline in the birthrate.

“The introduction of free preschool education could be a game-changer for families struggling with the high cost of raising children,” said Li Yang, an expert on China’s demographic policies. “It is part of a broader effort to reduce the economic burdens on families and create a more favorable environment for childbearing.” Li's comments suggest that while free preschool education may not be a silver bullet, it could play an important role in reshaping the societal attitude toward having children.

However, critics argue that free preschool education alone will not be enough to reverse China’s demographic decline. Some point out that the issue is not just financial; social and cultural factors also play a significant role. In particular, the rise of individualism and the changing role of women in society have made many young people less inclined to start families. As China becomes increasingly urbanized, young people are also less likely to live in multigenerational households, which historically provided support for child-rearing.

Is Free Preschool Education Enough?

While free preschool education could provide immediate financial relief to families and encourage some to have more children, it is unlikely to be the sole solution to China’s birth crisis. There are several deeper, structural issues that need to be addressed to reverse the demographic trend.

For one, the high cost of housing remains a significant barrier to childbearing. In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, property prices have skyrocketed in recent years, making it difficult for young families to afford larger homes. Without addressing the housing affordability crisis, many young people may continue to delay or forgo having children altogether, regardless of the availability of free preschool education.

Additionally, cultural factors must be taken into account. As China has modernized, many young people, particularly in urban areas, are placing a higher value on career advancement and personal freedom. There is also the growing concern about work-life balance, with many young people wary of the time and energy required to raise children in a rapidly changing society. Changing these societal attitudes will require more than just financial incentives; it will require a fundamental shift in how families are structured and how the role of parents is perceived.

The Global Context: Lessons from Other Countries

China is not alone in facing demographic challenges. Other countries, including Japan, South Korea, and several European nations, have implemented policies aimed at boosting fertility rates. These policies often include subsidies for childcare, paid parental leave, and financial incentives for families with children. Some countries, such as Sweden and Denmark, have even implemented universal preschool systems, which have been credited with helping to increase fertility rates and support gender equality in the workplace.

However, no country has yet found a perfect solution to the issue of declining birthrates. In many cases, the policies designed to support families have had limited success in reversing demographic trends. This suggests that free preschool education, while an important step, may only be part of a much larger solution.

Free preschool education has the potential to alleviate some of the financial pressures faced by families in China and could encourage some couples to have more children. However, it is unlikely to be a panacea for China’s birth crisis. To truly reverse the demographic decline, China will need to address a wider range of social, cultural, and economic issues, including housing affordability, work-life balance, and the evolving role of women in society.

As Zhang Xiaoqiang noted, “The government should provide free kindergarten education for all children” as part of a broader effort to support families and create a more favorable environment for childbearing. While this proposal may not solve the problem on its own, it could be an essential component of a much-needed strategy to secure China’s demographic and economic future.