Which city in the world is most likely to become a "15-minute city"?

The concept of the "15-minute city" has gained significant traction in urban planning circles in recent years, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. But which cities around the world are closest to achieving this ideal of hyper-local, walkable neighborhoods? A new global analysis provides some intriguing insights into which metropolises are leading the way - and which still have work to do.

Before diving into the rankings, it's important to understand what exactly constitutes a 15-minute city. At its core, the 15-minute city concept envisions urban areas where residents can access all their daily needs within a 15-minute walk or bike ride from their home. This includes essentials like grocery stores, schools, healthcare facilities, workplaces, parks, and cultural venues.

The goal is to create dense, mixed-use neighborhoods that reduce car dependency, promote active transportation, lower carbon emissions, and foster a stronger sense of local community. By bringing services and amenities closer to where people live, 15-minute cities aim to improve quality of life and make urban areas more livable and sustainable.

Global Leaders: Paris and Milan

According to a comprehensive new worldwide analysis, two European capitals are emerging as frontrunners in the race to become true 15-minute cities: Paris and Milan.

"Paris and Milan are among the cities closest to reaching the urban planning goal of being a '15-minute city', while car-dependent metropolises in the United States and elsewhere lag behind," the study found.

This aligns with Paris's ambitious efforts in recent years to transform itself into a 15-minute city under Mayor Anne Hidalgo. The city has invested heavily in bike lanes, pedestrianization, and bringing services closer to residential areas. Milan has similarly focused on creating more walkable, bikeable neighborhoods with a mix of residential and commercial spaces.

Many City Centers Already Meet the Criteria

Interestingly, the analysis revealed that the central areas of many major cities around the world already meet the definition of a 15-minute city, even if their outer regions do not. This highlights the stark differences that often exist between dense, amenity-rich urban cores and more sprawling suburban areas.

"In fact, the central areas of many cities already meet the definition of a 15 minute-city, which means that residents are within a quarter-hour walk or bike ride from everything they need to a lead a good life," the researchers noted.

Cities like New York, London, and Tokyo, for instance, have extremely walkable downtown areas where residents can easily access a wide range of services on foot. The challenge lies in extending this level of accessibility to outer neighborhoods and suburbs.

Lagging Behind: Car-Dependent U.S. Cities

While European cities like Paris and Milan are leading the way, the analysis found that many U.S. cities are struggling to achieve 15-minute city status due to their car-centric design and sprawling layouts.

Cities like Houston, Phoenix, and Los Angeles, which developed primarily in the automobile age, face significant hurdles in transforming into walkable, bikeable communities. Their low-density suburban sprawl and separation of residential and commercial areas make it difficult for residents to access daily needs without a car.

However, even in the U.S., some cities are making strides. Portland, Oregon has been a pioneer in promoting walkable neighborhoods and bike infrastructure. Minneapolis has eliminated single-family zoning to encourage denser, mixed-use development. And New York City has been expanding its network of protected bike lanes and pedestrian plazas.

The Impact of COVID-19

The global pandemic has accelerated interest in the 15-minute city concept as people spent more time in their local neighborhoods during lockdowns.

"The concept of the 15-minute city gained traction during the Covid-19 pandemic, when lockdowns put more focus on local neighbourhoods," the researchers observed.

This shift highlighted the importance of having essential services and green spaces within walking distance. It also demonstrated the potential for remote work to reduce commuting and revitalize local communities.

Key Elements of Successful 15-Minute Cities

While every city faces unique challenges in implementing the 15-minute city vision, several key elements are common to successful efforts:

Mixed-use zoning: Allowing residential, commercial, and recreational spaces to coexist in close proximity.

Density: Encouraging denser development to bring more services and amenities within walking distance.

Active transportation infrastructure: Investing in safe, connected networks of bike lanes and pedestrian paths.

Public spaces: Creating inviting parks, plazas, and community centers to foster social interaction.

Local services: Ensuring access to essential services like healthcare, education, and fresh food within each neighborhood.

Public transit: Providing efficient public transportation options to connect neighborhoods and reduce car dependency.

Affordable housing: Ensuring a mix of housing options to maintain diverse, inclusive communities.

Challenges and Criticisms

While the 15-minute city concept has gained many advocates, it's not without its challenges and critics. Some of the main obstacles include:

Existing infrastructure: Retrofitting car-centric cities can be expensive and time-consuming.

Zoning laws: Outdated zoning regulations often hinder mixed-use development.

Equity concerns: There are worries that 15-minute cities could lead to gentrification and displacement if not implemented carefully.

Political will: Transforming cities requires long-term commitment from political leaders and residents.

Some critics have also raised concerns about the potential for 15-minute cities to limit mobility or create isolated "urban villages." However, proponents argue that the goal is to provide more local options, not restrict movement.

The Future of 15-Minute Cities

As cities worldwide grapple with challenges like climate change, traffic congestion, and declining quality of life, the 15-minute city concept is likely to gain even more traction. While Paris and Milan may be leading the way, cities around the globe are adapting the principles to fit their unique contexts.

Barcelona is implementing "superblocks" to create car-free neighborhood zones. Melbourne is planning a network of "20-minute neighborhoods." And China is experimenting with "15-minute community life circles" in cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou.

The key will be balancing the need for local, walkable communities with the benefits of urban connectivity and diversity. As the researchers behind the global analysis noted, there are often "stark differences between the wealthy inner cities and the urban sprawl on their outskirts". Addressing these inequalities will be crucial for creating truly inclusive 15-minute cities.

While no city has yet achieved the full vision of a 15-minute city across its entire urban area, many are making significant progress. Paris and Milan are leading the charge in Europe, while even car-centric U.S. cities are beginning to embrace more walkable, mixed-use development.

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated interest in this urban planning model, highlighting the benefits of strong local communities and reduced commuting. As cities worldwide seek to become more livable, sustainable, and resilient, the 15-minute city concept is likely to play an increasingly important role in shaping our urban future.

The journey to becoming a true 15-minute city is a long one, requiring sustained effort and investment. But for cities willing to embrace this vision, the potential benefits in terms of quality of life, sustainability, and community well-being are immense. As urban populations continue to grow, creating more human-scaled, walkable neighborhoods may be key to building the livable cities of tomorrow.