Can adjustable rate mortgages make sense with rising interest rates?

[UNITED STATES] In the current economic landscape, where interest rates are on an upward trajectory, many prospective homebuyers and homeowners are reconsidering their mortgage options. One alternative that's gaining traction is the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). But with the specter of rising rates looming, do ARMs truly make sense? Let's delve into the intricacies of ARMs and evaluate their potential benefits and risks in today's market.

Adjustable-rate mortgages are home loans with interest rates that can fluctuate over time. Unlike fixed-rate mortgages, which maintain the same interest rate throughout the loan term, ARMs typically offer a lower initial rate for a set period before adjusting periodically based on market conditions.

Types of ARMs

ARMs come in various configurations, with the most common being:

5/1 ARM: Fixed rate for five years, then adjusts annually

7/1 ARM: Fixed rate for seven years, then adjusts annually

10/1 ARM: Fixed rate for ten years, then adjusts annually

The numbers represent the initial fixed-rate period and the frequency of rate adjustments thereafter.

The Current Interest Rate Environment

As of 2025, interest rates have been steadily climbing, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reaching levels not seen in over two decades. This surge in rates has significantly impacted the housing market, reducing affordability and forcing potential buyers to explore alternative financing options.

The Appeal of ARMs in a Rising Rate Environment

With fixed-rate mortgages becoming increasingly expensive, ARMs have emerged as an attractive alternative for some borrowers. Here's why:

Lower Initial Rates

ARMs typically offer lower initial interest rates compared to fixed-rate mortgages. This can translate to substantial savings, especially in the short term. For instance, as of October 2023, while the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 7.67%, the average rate for a 5/1 ARM was significantly lower at 6.33%.

Potential for Rate Decreases

Unlike fixed-rate mortgages, ARMs have the potential for rate decreases if market conditions improve. This flexibility can be advantageous for borrowers who anticipate falling rates in the future.

Short-Term Savings

For homebuyers planning to sell or refinance within a few years, ARMs can offer significant savings. The lower initial rate can result in lower monthly payments during the fixed-rate period, allowing borrowers to allocate funds elsewhere.

Risks Associated with ARMs

While ARMs may seem appealing in the current market, they come with inherent risks that borrowers must carefully consider:

Payment Shock

The most significant risk of an ARM is the potential for payment shock when the initial fixed-rate period ends. If interest rates have risen substantially, borrowers could face significantly higher monthly payments.

Unpredictable Payments

After the fixed-rate period, ARM payments can become unpredictable, making long-term budgeting challenging. This uncertainty can be particularly stressful for borrowers with tight finances.

Difficulty Refinancing or Selling

If property values decline or personal financial situations change, borrowers may find it difficult to refinance or sell their homes before the rate adjusts. This scenario could leave them stuck with potentially higher payments.

Who Should Consider an ARM?

Despite the risks, ARMs may be suitable for certain borrowers:

Short-Term Homeowners

Individuals planning to sell their homes within the initial fixed-rate period of an ARM can benefit from lower rates without exposure to future adjustments.

Financially Stable Borrowers

Those with strong credit scores, substantial savings, and the ability to handle potential payment increases may find ARMs advantageous.

Buyers Anticipating Income Growth

Borrowers expecting significant income increases in the near future may be better positioned to handle potential rate adjustments.

Comparing ARMs to Fixed-Rate Mortgages

When deciding between an ARM and a fixed-rate mortgage, consider the following:

Interest Rate Savings

Calculate the potential savings during the initial fixed-rate period of an ARM compared to a fixed-rate mortgage. For a $250,000 mortgage, the difference between a 3.05% fixed rate and a 2.55% ARM rate could result in monthly savings of $55, or $660 per year.

Long-Term Plans

Evaluate your long-term housing plans. If you're likely to move or refinance before the ARM adjusts, it could be a cost-effective choice.

Risk Tolerance

Assess your comfort level with potential rate increases. If you prefer predictable payments, a fixed-rate mortgage might be more suitable.

Recent Trends in ARM Popularity

The share of ARM applications has been increasing as fixed rates rise. In May 2024, ARM applications accounted for 9.2% of all mortgage applications, the highest share since November 2022. This trend reflects borrowers' search for more affordable financing options in a high-rate environment.

Expert Opinions on ARMs

Financial experts have varying views on the viability of ARMs in the current market. Bob Broeksmit, CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association, notes, "With mortgage rates well above 7%, some prospective homebuyers are turning to ARMs to lower their monthly payment in the short term amidst these high mortgage rates".

However, some experts caution against the risks. Mason Whitehead, a branch manager for Churchill Mortgage, shares his personal experience: "I did it because I knew I'd be selling it in three to four years and it would be fine. But the market is hard to predict, and largely because of the housing bubble burst in 2008, I was still holding that property 10 years later and couldn't sell it".

Regulatory Changes and ARM Safety

It's important to note that ARMs today are generally safer than those offered during the 2008 housing crisis. Stricter regulations and increased transparency have reduced some of the risks associated with these loans. However, borrowers should still carefully review the terms and conditions of any ARM they consider.

Making the Decision: ARM or Fixed-Rate?

When deciding between an ARM and a fixed-rate mortgage, consider the following factors:

Current Market Conditions

Analyze the current interest rate environment and economic forecasts. If rates are expected to decrease in the near future, an ARM might be advantageous.

Personal Financial Situation

Evaluate your income stability, savings, and ability to handle potential payment increases.

Future Plans

Consider your long-term housing plans and how they align with the ARM's fixed-rate period.

Risk Tolerance

Assess your comfort level with potential rate and payment fluctuations.

In the face of rising interest rates, adjustable-rate mortgages can offer short-term savings and flexibility for certain borrowers. However, they also come with inherent risks that must be carefully weighed against potential benefits. As with any significant financial decision, it's crucial to thoroughly research your options, consider your personal circumstances, and consult with financial professionals before committing to an ARM.

While ARMs may make sense for some borrowers in the current high-rate environment, they are not a one-size-fits-all solution. The decision to choose an ARM should be based on a comprehensive evaluation of your financial situation, future plans, and risk tolerance. As the housing market continues to evolve, staying informed and adaptable will be key to making sound mortgage decisions.