How the next U.S. president may address retirement fund depletion

[UNITED STATES] The United States faces a critical juncture as Social Security's retirement trust fund teeters on the brink of insolvency. With projections indicating that the fund may run out in just nine years, the next U.S. president will play a pivotal role in addressing this looming crisis. As the 2024 presidential race heats up, candidates' stances on Social Security reform have become a focal point for voters and policymakers alike.

The Impending Social Security Shortfall

Social Security, a cornerstone of retirement security for millions of Americans, is facing unprecedented challenges. The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, which funds retirement benefits, is projected to be depleted by 2033. This dire forecast has sent shockwaves through the political landscape, prompting urgent calls for reform.

According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), if no action is taken, beneficiaries could face an automatic 21% cut to their monthly checks once the trust fund is exhausted. This reduction would affect all recipients, regardless of income or marital status, potentially pushing many seniors into financial hardship.

The 2024 Presidential Race and Social Security

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the future of Social Security has emerged as a key campaign issue. The two leading candidates, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, have both pledged to protect Social Security, but their approaches differ significantly.

Donald Trump's Stance

Trump has vowed to "fight for and protect Social Security" without implementing cuts or changes to the retirement age. However, his campaign proposals have raised concerns among some experts. The CRFB estimates that Trump's agenda could:

• Increase Social Security's ten-year cash shortfall by $2.3 trillion through 2035
• Advance insolvency by three years, from 2034 to 2031
• Lead to a 33% across-the-board benefit cut in 2035, up from the projected 23% under current law

Trump's proposals include eliminating taxation of Social Security benefits and ending taxes on tips and overtime, which could reduce revenue for the program.

Kamala Harris's Approach

Vice President Harris has also committed to protecting Social Security and Medicare. Her campaign platform emphasizes:

• Making corporations and wealthy Americans pay their "fair share" in taxes to maintain program solvency
• Expanding savings on prescription drugs for all Americans
• Building on the Butch Lewis Act to protect union pensions

Harris has stated, "President Joe Biden and I will protect Social Security. Donald Trump will not."

Potential Solutions and Challenges

Addressing Social Security's funding shortfall will require difficult decisions and bipartisan cooperation. Some potential solutions that have been proposed include:

Raising the retirement age: This could help account for increased life expectancy but may face opposition from workers nearing retirement.

Increasing payroll taxes: This could boost revenue but may be unpopular with both employers and employees.

Adjusting the benefit formula: This could reduce benefits for higher-income retirees but may face resistance from those affected.

Expanding the payroll tax cap: Currently, earnings above $160,200 are not subject to Social Security taxes. Raising or eliminating this cap could increase revenue.

Means-testing benefits: This would reduce benefits for wealthier retirees but could alter the program's universal nature.

Expert Opinions and Analysis

Experts emphasize the urgency of addressing Social Security's funding issues. Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, notes, "There's a lot of misinformation, like the program will just disappear, and that isn't going to happen. The best way to look at it is that possible insolvency is an action-forcing event."

Mark Friedlich, VP of US Government Affairs at Wolters Kluwer, suggests that significant changes to Social Security are "unlikely without strong congressional support." He adds that while Harris might face opposition in a divided Congress if she wins, Trump's campaign promises make sweeping cuts unlikely under his potential administration.

The Impact on Retirees

The potential consequences of inaction are severe. A typical couple retiring just before insolvency could face a $16,500 annual cut in benefits. This reduction would disproportionately affect lower-income retirees who rely heavily on Social Security for their post-retirement income.

Shannon Benton, executive director of the Senior Citizens League, warns, "The result would likely lead to a spike in poverty rates for older Americans. Given that low-paid workers are less likely to save for retirement compared to higher-income Americans, they are often more reliant on Social Security in their later years."

The Cost of Delaying Action

Experts stress that the longer policymakers wait to address Social Security's funding issues, the more drastic the necessary changes will be. Chris Towner, policy director at the CRFB, explains, "There is a cost of waiting to fix the program. It could be fixed right now with a 27% tax increase or a 21% benefit cut to all beneficiaries, while waiting would make the tax increase grow to 32% and the cut to 25%."

Public Perception and Misconceptions

Despite the gravity of the situation, many Americans misunderstand the implications of Social Security insolvency. A recent Gallup poll found that about 8 in 10 U.S. adults worry that Social Security "won't be available" when they are old enough to receive it. However, experts emphasize that even if the trust fund is depleted, the program will continue to pay out about 79% of promised benefits through ongoing payroll tax revenue.

The Role of Congress

Ultimately, any significant changes to Social Security will require congressional action. The next president's ability to implement reforms will depend heavily on the composition of Congress and the level of bipartisan cooperation they can achieve.

Rep. Drew Ferguson, R-Georgia, chairman of the House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Social Security, has stated, "I have said many times that the only way that this gets solved is in a bipartisan open forum."

Looking Ahead

As the 2024 election approaches, voters will need to carefully consider the candidates' positions on Social Security reform. The next president will face the daunting task of balancing the need for fiscal sustainability with the promise of retirement security for millions of Americans.

Charles Blahous, senior research strategist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, summarizes the challenge: "The size of the shortfall now is so huge, and so far beyond anything that lawmakers have successfully closed before, the notion that either party can ram through its preferred solution is fanciful."

The path forward will require difficult choices, innovative solutions, and a commitment to preserving this vital program for future generations. As the clock ticks down to potential insolvency, the stakes for America's retirees – and the nation as a whole – could not be higher.