The US is considering strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure in retribution for Tehran's missile attack on Israel, President Joe Biden stated on October 3, while Israel's military continued its war against Iran-backed armed organization Hezbollah in Lebanon. As Israel examines its choices following Iran's largest-ever attack on October 1, Mr. Biden was asked if he would back Israel targeting Iran's oil infrastructure.
"We are discussing it," Mr Biden told reporters. His statements fueled a rise in global oil prices, and escalating Middle East tensions have traders concerned about future supply interruptions.
The potential targeting of Iran's oil infrastructure marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. Analysts suggest that such a move could have far-reaching consequences, not only for the region but also for global oil markets. The mere suggestion of strikes has already caused oil prices to surge, with Brent crude jumping by 3% in early trading. Energy experts warn that any disruption to Iran's oil production could lead to a substantial spike in global oil prices, potentially impacting economies worldwide.
"There is nothing going to happen today," Mr Biden stated. On October 2, the president stated that he would not support an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear installations.
On October 3, Israel's UN Ambassador Danny Danon warned CNN that his nation has "a lot of options" for retribution and will demonstrate its power to Tehran "soon". A US official stated that Washington does not believe Israel has yet chosen how to respond to Iran.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that Iran would pay for the October 1 missile assault, and Washington has stated that it will cooperate with its long-time friend to guarantee Iran faces "severe consequences." Speaking in Doha on October 3, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Tehran will be prepared to reply.
"Any type of military attack, terrorist act or crossing our red lines will be met with a decisive response by our armed forces," he claimed.
The international community has expressed growing concern over the potential for further escalation. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has called for immediate de-escalation and urged all parties to exercise maximum restraint. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts are underway, with several countries, including Russia and China, offering to mediate talks between Iran and Israel. However, the effectiveness of these diplomatic initiatives remains uncertain given the heightened tensions and the history of mistrust between the involved parties.
G-7 Urges for Restraint
On October 3, Israel's military ordered inhabitants of more than 20 villages in south Lebanon to leave immediately as it continued its cross-border invasion and targeted Hezbollah targets in a Beirut neighborhood.
The fresh warnings increased the number of southern towns subject to evacuation orders to 70, including the province capital Nabatieh, implying that another Israeli military action against the Iran-backed armed organization was likely.
Hezbollah also carried out further assaults, firing rockets against Israel's "Sakhnin base" for military enterprises near Haifa Bay on the Mediterranean coast of northern Israel.
Warning sirens rang again late on October 3, as well as in the northern Israeli region of Galilee, and ten rockets entered into Israel from Lebanon, according to Israel's military. They were either intercepted or permitted to fall into open spaces.
Israel, which has been fighting Hamas in the Palestinian enclave of Gaza for almost a year, moved soldiers into southern Lebanon on October 1 following two weeks of intensive bombardment in a deteriorating conflict that has dragged in Iran and poses a risk to the United States.
On October 3, the Group of Seven nations, which includes the United States, Britain, and its allies, denounced Iran's missile strike and reiterated its commitment to Israel's security. However, the organization also advocated for moderation, a cease-fire in Gaza, and an end to hostilities in Lebanon.
"A dangerous cycle of attacks and retaliation risks fuelling uncontrollable escalation in the Middle East, which is in no one's interest," the organization warned in a press release. Qatar's Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, also called for genuine cease-fire measures to put an end to what he described as Israeli aggression.
The ongoing conflict has had a devastating impact on civilian populations in the region. Humanitarian organizations report a growing crisis, with thousands of people displaced and essential services disrupted. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has warned of a potential refugee crisis if the situation continues to deteriorate. Aid agencies are struggling to provide assistance in the face of ongoing hostilities and restricted access to affected areas. The international community is being urged to increase humanitarian support and facilitate safe passage for civilians caught in the crossfire.
Hezbollah claimed to have killed 17 Israeli servicemen. Israel claims its operations in Lebanon are aimed at allowing tens of thousands of its people to return home after being forced to flee northern Israel by Hezbollah bombings during the Gaza conflict.
More than 1.2 million Lebanese have been displaced by Israeli bombings, and approximately 2,000 people have been murdered since the beginning of Israel's attacks on Lebanon last year, with the majority of them occurring in the previous two weeks, according to Lebanese officials. Hezbollah claims it has thwarted many field assaults by Israeli soldiers, including ambushes and direct battles.
The organization claimed to have killed 17 Israeli military troops in fighting in southern Lebanon on October 3, citing field and security sources. Israeli military did not respond to the accusation. On October 3, the Israeli military reported the death of one soldier. On October 2, it revealed its worst day in a year of battles with Hezbollah, killing eight troops.
The Lebanese army said that two soldiers were killed by Israeli strikes in separate instances in south Lebanon on October 1, one in an attack on a military position and the other in a strike on a rescue effort with the Lebanese Red Cross.
When the military position was attacked, the army said it returned fire, an uncommon occurrence for a force that has often remained on the sidelines of major conflicts with Israel.
The economic ramifications of the conflict are becoming increasingly apparent. Lebanon, already grappling with a severe economic crisis, is facing further strain on its fragile economy. The tourism sector, a vital source of revenue for the country, has been hit hard, with cancellations soaring and foreign governments advising their citizens against travel to the region. Similarly, Israel's economy is feeling the impact, with the shekel weakening and the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange experiencing volatility. Economic analysts warn that a prolonged conflict could have long-lasting effects on both countries' economies, potentially destabilizing the entire region's financial landscape.
Beirut is Under Assault
On October 1, numerous explosions were reported in Beirut's southern neighborhood of Dahiye, a densely populated area controlled by Hezbollah, and massive plumes of smoke rose as a result of intense Israeli attacks. On October 1, Israel's military claimed to have targeted 15 Hezbollah targets in Beirut, including weapons and intelligence installations.
Overnight, Israel attacked central Beirut, killing nine people, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. Reuters journalists reported hearing a loud explosion after a building was struck a few hundred meters from parliament, the closest an Israeli attack has gone to the major downtown zone.
The Lebanese border opened after Hezbollah fired missiles at Israel a year ago in support of Hamas' assault against Israel in Gaza. Iran's other regional allies, the Yemeni Houthis and armed organizations in Iraq, have also conducted strikes in the region to help Hamas.
