Harris or Trump: Asia's 2024 US Election stakes

[ASIA] As the United States gears up for another pivotal election in 2024, the eyes of the world are once again fixed on the political arena of the world's most powerful democracy. For Asia, in particular, the outcome of this election could have far-reaching consequences, shaping the region's geopolitical landscape for years to come. The potential face-off between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump presents two distinctly different visions for US-Asia relations, each with its own set of implications for the region's stability, economic growth, and security.

Kamala Harris: Building on Obama-era Engagement

Vice President Kamala Harris, with her roots in the Democratic Party, represents a continuation and potential expansion of the Obama administration's "pivot to Asia" strategy. Her approach to foreign policy and diplomatic engagement in the Indo-Pacific region is likely to be more multilateral and coalition-based.

Diplomatic Engagement and Multilateralism

Harris has consistently emphasized the importance of working with allies and partners in the region. During her visits to Southeast Asian countries, she has stressed the need for cooperation on issues ranging from climate change to regional security. "We are committed to this region," Harris stated during a trip to Singapore, underlining the Biden administration's focus on strengthening ties with Asian allies.

This approach aligns with the preferences of many Asian nations, particularly those in Southeast Asia, who often seek to balance their relationships between major powers. Harris's emphasis on multilateral institutions and ASEAN cooperation could provide a more predictable and stable environment for regional diplomacy.

Economic Partnerships and Trade Agreements

On the economic front, Harris is likely to pursue a more nuanced approach to trade than her predecessor. While the Biden administration has not rushed to join multilateral trade agreements like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), there are indications that under Harris, the US might consider more targeted economic partnerships.

The Vice President has spoken about the need for "inclusive economic growth" in the region, suggesting a focus on sustainable development and equitable trade practices. This could potentially lead to new forms of economic cooperation, particularly in areas like green technology and digital economy, which are of growing importance to many Asian economies.

Climate Change and Environmental Initiatives

One area where Harris's policies could significantly impact Asia is climate change. The region is particularly vulnerable to the effects of global warming, and Harris has made climate action a cornerstone of her international agenda. Her commitment to the Paris Agreement and push for clean energy transitions could align well with the goals of many Asian countries working to reduce their carbon footprints.

Security Alliances and Regional Stability

In terms of security, Harris is likely to maintain and potentially strengthen existing alliances in the region. Her stance on issues like the South China Sea disputes and North Korea's nuclear program is expected to be firm but diplomatic, emphasizing international law and multilateral solutions.

"We stand with our allies and partners in the face of threats to international rules and norms," Harris has stated, indicating a commitment to regional stability through collective security arrangements.

Donald Trump: America First and Bilateral Dealmaking

Former President Donald Trump's potential return to the White House would likely signal a dramatic shift in US-Asia policy, reverting to his "America First" approach that characterized his first term.

Bilateral Negotiations and Transactional Diplomacy

Trump's approach to Asia during his presidency was marked by a preference for bilateral negotiations over multilateral engagements. This strategy could lead to more direct, transactional relationships with individual Asian countries, potentially bypassing regional institutions like ASEAN.

"I withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and replaced it with historic bilateral trade deals," Trump has boasted, highlighting his preference for one-on-one negotiations.

Trade and Economic Policies

Trump's trade policies, particularly his use of tariffs as a negotiating tool, could once again become a central feature of US-Asia economic relations. This approach might lead to increased economic uncertainty in the region, as countries grapple with potential trade disputes and shifting market access.

However, Trump's willingness to challenge China economically could find support among some Asian nations concerned about Beijing's growing influence. His administration's focus on "decoupling" from China might accelerate trends towards supply chain diversification, potentially benefiting other Asian economies.

Security and Geopolitical Stance

On security issues, Trump's "America First" doctrine could lead to a reevaluation of US commitments in the region. His previous calls for allies to increase their defense spending and his skepticism towards some long-standing security arrangements might create uncertainty about the US role in regional security.

However, Trump's more confrontational stance towards China could resonate with countries wary of Beijing's assertiveness. His administration's Indo-Pacific strategy, which aimed to counter Chinese influence, might see a revival, potentially leading to stronger security partnerships with countries like India, Japan, and Australia.

Climate Change and Environmental Policy

Trump's skepticism towards climate change action and his previous withdrawal from the Paris Agreement could put him at odds with many Asian countries increasingly concerned about environmental issues. This divergence could impact broader cooperation on other regional challenges.

The China Factor

Both Harris and Trump would likely maintain a focus on managing the US-China relationship, albeit through different approaches. Harris would probably pursue a more coordinated strategy with allies to counter Chinese influence, while Trump might opt for more direct, unilateral actions.

For many Asian countries, navigating the US-China rivalry is a key concern. Harris's multilateral approach might offer more opportunities for smaller nations to have their voices heard, while Trump's bilateral dealmaking could lead to a more polarized regional environment.

Implications for Key Asian Issues

North Korea Denuclearization

Harris would likely return to a more traditional diplomatic approach, working closely with South Korea and Japan. Trump, on the other hand, might revive his strategy of direct engagement with North Korean leadership, which yielded high-profile summits but limited concrete results.

Taiwan Relations

Both candidates would likely maintain support for Taiwan, but their methods could differ. Harris might emphasize diplomatic and economic support within existing frameworks, while Trump could potentially take more provocative stances, as seen in his administration's increased arms sales and high-level visits.

ASEAN Cooperation

Harris's emphasis on multilateralism suggests a renewed focus on ASEAN as a key partner in regional affairs. Trump's preference for bilateral deals might sideline ASEAN as an institution, potentially weakening its role in regional diplomacy.

As Asia contemplates the potential outcomes of the 2024 US presidential election, the choice between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump presents two distinctly different paths for US-Asia relations. Harris offers a return to multilateral engagement and a focus on shared challenges like climate change, while Trump represents a more transactional, bilateral approach with an emphasis on economic competition.

For Asian nations, the ideal outcome might involve elements of both approaches: the stability and predictability of multilateral engagement combined with the decisiveness and clarity of purpose sometimes seen in bilateral dealmaking. Regardless of the outcome, Asian countries will need to navigate their relationships with the US carefully, balancing their own interests against the shifting currents of American foreign policy.

As the election approaches, leaders across Asia will be watching closely, knowing that their decisions in the coming years could shape the region's future for decades to come.