How Trump’s tensions with Europe could benefit China

[UNITED STATES] In recent years, global politics has been marked by a growing sense of uncertainty, especially in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s presidency. One of the most prominent features of his time in office was his protectionist approach to international trade, particularly with Europe. This approach strained relationships between the United States and its European allies, and created a series of ripple effects in global geopolitics. While the primary focus was often on how Europe would react to these policies, a less-discussed but increasingly important consequence is the way these tensions may benefit China, potentially strengthening its position on the global stage.

The Rise of Protectionism Under Trump

Donald Trump’s foreign policy was defined by an "America First" stance, which aimed to renegotiate or abandon trade deals that he deemed unfavorable to the U.S. He pulled the country out of the Paris Climate Agreement, imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and engaged in a trade war with China. These protectionist policies fundamentally changed the global trading landscape and sowed discord among the U.S.'s allies, particularly in Europe.

Trump's actions, such as withdrawing from the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), alienated many European leaders who had hoped for deeper economic ties with the U.S. These tensions further escalated with Trump's critical stance on NATO, his rhetoric against the European Union, and his encouragement of Brexit. The U.S.-Europe relationship, once a cornerstone of global stability, became increasingly fractious.

As Europe sought to navigate the challenges of Trump's protectionism, it began to reconsider its long-term strategy for dealing with both the U.S. and China. While European nations continued to prioritize their relationship with the U.S., the growing economic and political pressure led some to look toward China as an alternative partner.

China's Strategic Advantage

One of the most significant implications of these tensions was the way in which China began to emerge as an unintended beneficiary. As Trump’s trade war with China intensified, Europe found itself in a difficult position. On the one hand, European nations wanted to maintain strong ties with the U.S. On the other hand, the U.S.'s policies seemed to push European countries closer to China, particularly in the economic sphere.

China has long been an important global player, but under President Xi Jinping, it has pursued more aggressive foreign policies, including the Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to invest in infrastructure across Asia, Africa, and Europe. These investments have not only expanded China’s influence but have also created opportunities for European nations to deepen economic ties with Beijing.

For instance, several European countries, including Italy, Greece, and Hungary, have signed deals with China under the Belt and Road Initiative. These agreements, though often controversial, have allowed these countries to secure much-needed infrastructure investments. In exchange, China gains access to strategic ports, railways, and other infrastructure projects across Europe.

Economic Interdependence Between Europe and China

Europe’s relationship with China is not limited to infrastructure investments. Over the past decade, China has become one of Europe’s most important trading partners, particularly in terms of imports and exports. According to Eurostat, China is the EU's second-largest trading partner after the United States. In 2020 alone, EU-China trade amounted to more than €600 billion, a testament to the growing economic interdependence between the two regions.

As Europe faces growing uncertainty about its relationship with the U.S., many European countries have looked to China as a stable economic partner. China's massive market, along with its manufacturing capabilities, offers European businesses significant opportunities for growth. China’s investments in technology, including artificial intelligence and green energy, also present potential areas of collaboration, particularly as Europe seeks to transition to a more sustainable economy.

Moreover, the EU has been increasingly receptive to China’s strategic importance in global supply chains. This is especially relevant as Europe looks to diversify its sources of critical materials and products, particularly those related to technology and renewable energy. China's role as a leading producer of rare earth elements, essential for the production of smartphones, electric vehicles, and other high-tech products, further solidifies its significance in Europe’s supply chain.

European Leaders Respond to Tensions with Trump

As the Trump administration’s protectionist policies intensified, many European leaders found themselves in a delicate balancing act. While they sought to preserve their relationship with the U.S., they also recognized the need to secure their economic future. A shift in policy became evident as European leaders began to openly engage with China, even as the U.S. took a more adversarial stance toward Beijing.

In 2020, the EU and China reached an investment agreement known as the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). This deal was seen as a significant step toward strengthening economic ties between Europe and China, despite the ongoing tensions with the U.S. The agreement was intended to provide European companies with better access to the Chinese market and improve the investment climate for European businesses in China.

While the CAI deal was met with some criticism in Europe, particularly from human rights groups and those wary of China's growing influence, it underscored the growing pragmatism of European leaders in the face of increasing pressure from the U.S. and China.

The Long-Term Implications for Global Geopolitics

The shifting dynamics between the U.S., Europe, and China are likely to have significant long-term implications for global geopolitics. If tensions between Europe and the U.S. continue to escalate, China’s role as a global power is likely to grow stronger. Europe’s increasing engagement with China could lead to a more multipolar world, with the U.S. playing a less central role in shaping global affairs.

This shift may also have consequences for international institutions. The European Union, which has traditionally aligned with the U.S. on many issues, may begin to take a more independent stance, pursuing its own interests in global trade and security. This could further strain the transatlantic relationship, but it may also create opportunities for China to exert greater influence in international organizations such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, and the International Monetary Fund.

As Europe deepens its ties with China, it could also lead to more complex geopolitical dynamics in other regions. For example, China's growing influence in Africa and Asia could align with European interests in these regions, creating new opportunities for collaboration. However, it could also create tension with the U.S. and other Western allies, who may view China's actions as a threat to their own global influence.

In the wake of Donald Trump’s protectionist policies, Europe has found itself caught between two global powers: the U.S. and China. While the U.S. remains a vital partner for many European nations, the tensions created by Trump’s approach to trade and diplomacy have led some countries to look for alternative opportunities. In this context, China stands to benefit, both economically and geopolitically.

As Europe seeks to diversify its relationships and secure its economic future, it is increasingly turning to China as a stable and lucrative partner. While this shift may have unintended consequences for the U.S.-Europe alliance, it could also lead to a more multipolar world, where China plays a more dominant role on the global stage. The long-term effects of this shift remain to be seen, but one thing is clear: the tensions between Trump and Europe could have far-reaching implications for global geopolitics, with China emerging as a key beneficiary.