Is Southern Lebanon the next battleground in Israel's regional conflict?

[MIDDLE EAST] The once-peaceful landscape of Southern Lebanon is rapidly transforming into a war-torn region, eerily reminiscent of the devastation witnessed in Gaza. As Israel intensifies its military operations against Hezbollah, the question looms: Is Southern Lebanon destined to become the next Gaza?

The Escalating Conflict

The Israel-Hezbollah tensions have reached a boiling point, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu adopting an increasingly aggressive stance. Initially, the stated goal was to push Hezbollah beyond the Litani River, allowing over 80,000 displaced Israelis to return to their homes in northern Israel. However, Netanyahu's rhetoric has since escalated, threatening the Lebanese people with "destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza" if they fail to oust Hezbollah.

This shift in strategy has alarmed international observers and raised concerns about the potential for a protracted conflict in the region. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have launched an intense aerial campaign, which Emily Tripp, director of Airwars, describes as the "most intense" in the past 20 years, second only to the ongoing bombardment of Gaza.

The Human Cost

The toll on civilian life has been staggering. On September 23 alone, more than 500 people lost their lives in Lebanon as the Israeli Air Force paved the way for a ground invasion. This marks the highest single-day death toll in Lebanon since the end of its 15-year civil war.

The conflict has already displaced over a million people, tearing apart the social fabric of an already fragile nation. As the IDF scours the region for Hezbollah stockpiles and militants, entire villages along the 120-kilometer stretch of the Blue Line – the de facto border between Israel and Lebanon – have been destroyed or abandoned.

Military Strategy and Occupation

Israel has deployed a significant military force to the region, with units from four divisions, each comprising around 10,000 soldiers, backed by special forces and intelligence units. Jonathan Conricus, a senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and former Israeli military official, estimates that IDF ground troops are operating about 5 kilometers inside Lebanon.

Eran Lerman, Israel's deputy national security advisor for foreign policy, revealed that Israeli special forces have been conducting periodic operations in southern Lebanon for nearly a year, preparing the battlefield for a potential invasion. "Now it's about large formations coming in to wipe out Hezbollah infrastructure and create the capacity to monitor any future attempt the group or its remnants may make to return," Lerman stated.

Long-term Implications

While Israeli officials claim there's no appetite for long-term occupation, there are also no immediate plans to withdraw. The government's ambitions have expanded from merely pushing Hezbollah out of the south to potentially eradicating the group's presence in Lebanon entirely.

This strategy is not without its risks. Historically, similar interventions have backfired, as seen in Israel's 1982 offensive against Lebanon. While that operation succeeded in expelling the Palestinian Liberation Organization and its leader Yasser Arafat, it also led to the birth and rise of Hezbollah.

Regional Dynamics and International Response

The conflict in Southern Lebanon has broader implications for Middle East geopolitics. Israel hopes that its actions, combined with the United States' show of strength in the Mediterranean, will deter Hezbollah and its patron, Iran. Simultaneously, they aim to embolden domestic Lebanese actors to challenge Hezbollah's dominance.

However, the international community remains concerned about the potential for escalation and the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the region. The United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) faces challenges in maintaining stability along the Blue Line, with both Israel and Hezbollah skeptical of its effectiveness.

The Day After: Reconstruction and Reconciliation

As the conflict rages on, thoughts turn to the aftermath and the monumental task of rebuilding Southern Lebanon. Ayman Mhanna, executive director of the Beirut-based Samir Kassir Foundation, expresses deep concern about the potential for intercommunal strife and tensions in the wake of the conflict.

"The country is reeling under a severe economic and political crisis, and we won't get international aid until there is a government, and I suspect some Arab countries are happy with what's happening to Hezbollah," Mhanna noted in a conversation with Foreign Policy.

Uncertain Future

The Israeli establishment hopes that the conflict will turn Palestinians against Hamas and Lebanese against Hezbollah, blaming these groups for the destruction of the past year. They believe the region is at a tipping point, where years of diplomatic efforts, including normalization deals with Arab states under the Abraham Accords, combined with domestic crises in Lebanon and Iran, could create an opportunity to end armed resistance against Israel.

However, as Netanyahu speaks of a "long war" that will usher in a "new Middle East," the shape of this future remains unclear. What is certain is that the people of Southern Lebanon are paying a heavy price in this geopolitical chess game.

As the conflict in Southern Lebanon intensifies, the parallels with Gaza become increasingly apparent. The region faces not only immediate destruction but also long-term challenges in rebuilding infrastructure, communities, and trust. The international community must remain vigilant and engaged to prevent further escalation and to support eventual reconstruction efforts.

While the outcome of this conflict remains uncertain, one thing is clear: the people of Southern Lebanon, like their counterparts in Gaza, are caught in the crossfire of a larger geopolitical struggle, with their homes, livelihoods, and futures hanging in the balance.