Japan's bold diplomatic move at Trump's inauguration

[WORLD] Japan is set to dispatch its Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya to attend US President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025. This unprecedented move marks the first time a Japanese foreign minister will attend a US presidential inauguration, signaling Tokyo's determination to assert its influence and prevent China from dominating the spotlight at this crucial event.

Japan's Diplomatic Offensive

Japan's decision to send Iwaya to Washington breaks with tradition, which typically relegates such events to ambassadors. This strategic shift reflects Tokyo's deep-seated anxieties about the unpredictability of the incoming Trump administration and its desire to safeguard the bedrock of its foreign policy: the alliance with the United States.

Building Trust with the Trump Administration

Iwaya himself emphasized the importance of this visit, stating, "We aim to build a relationship of trust with the Trump administration". This sentiment underscores Japan's proactive approach to shaping its relationship with the new US leadership from day one.

Setting the Stage for Future Talks

The foreign minister's attendance at the inauguration could pave the way for more high-level interactions. Japanese media reports suggest that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may hold a summit with Trump as early as February, highlighting the urgency with which Japan is approaching its diplomatic efforts.

Countering China's Influence

Japan's strategic move is not solely about strengthening ties with the US; it's also a calculated effort to counterbalance China's growing influence in the region and on the global stage.

Preventing China from Stealing the Spotlight

Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo, provides insight into Japan's motivations: "They do not want this to happen again … They feel it's better to be at the Trump table". By sending its top diplomat, Japan aims to ensure that China's representative, Vice-President Han Zheng, "does not steal all the limelight".

Addressing Regional Concerns

Japan's proactive stance reflects broader regional anxieties about China's assertiveness. The deteriorating security environment in East Asia, characterized by China's military modernization and North Korea's nuclear ambitions, has heightened Japan's sense of urgency in reinforcing its alliance with the United States8.

The Evolving US-Japan Alliance

The US-Japan alliance, a cornerstone of Japanese foreign and security policy since 1951, is entering a new phase of uncertainty with political changes in both countries8.

Adapting to Trump's Return

The return of Donald Trump to the White House has raised familiar questions about US commitment to its alliances. Japan's diplomatic offensive can be seen as a preemptive move to address these concerns and reaffirm the importance of the bilateral relationship.

Deepening Military Integration

Recent years have seen unprecedented heights in US-Japan military cooperation. Japan's 2022 National Security Strategy highlighted the importance of deeper bilateral military integration in facing what it termed "the most severe and complex security environment since the end of WWII".

Japan's Multifaceted Approach

While focusing on the US-Japan alliance, Tokyo is simultaneously pursuing a multifaceted approach to regional security and diplomacy.

Strengthening Regional Partnerships

Japan has been actively engaging in minilateral arrangements beyond its alliance with the US. The Global Combat Air Programme, a treaty signed with the UK and Italy to develop next-generation fighter jets, exemplifies Japan's efforts to diversify its security partnerships8.

Promoting an 'Asian NATO'

Prime Minister Ishiba has been advocating for an "Asian NATO," emphasizing that Ukraine today "may be the East Asia of tomorrow". This proposal, while controversial, demonstrates Japan's commitment to playing a more significant role in regional security.

The Quad: A Key Diplomatic Tool

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, comprising the US, Japan, India, and Australia, has emerged as a crucial platform for Japan's regional strategy.

Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting

In a significant development, the foreign ministers of the Quad countries are expected to meet in Washington on January 21, the day after Trump's inauguration16. This meeting, likely to be one of the first major diplomatic events of the new Trump administration, sends a strong signal of continuity in regional partnerships.

Reinforcing the Indo-Pacific Strategy

The early convening of Quad foreign ministers could ease fears of an isolationist "America First" foreign policy under Trump. It demonstrates an ongoing commitment to strengthening regional partnerships to counter China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Economic and Defense Considerations

Japan's diplomatic efforts extend beyond symbolic gestures, encompassing substantial economic and defense considerations.

Highlighting Economic Ties

Iwaya is expected to emphasize the economic and national security value that Japan, as a key Asian ally, brings to the United States. This approach aims to appeal to Trump's transactional view of international relations.

Addressing Defense Spending

With Trump's known focus on allies' defense spending, Japan is likely to highlight its recent increases in military expenditure. The Japanese government has pledged to double its defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, although domestic political challenges may complicate this goal.

Challenges and Opportunities Ahead

As Japan navigates this complex diplomatic landscape, it faces both challenges and opportunities.

Balancing Regional Relationships

While strengthening ties with the US, Japan must also manage its relationships with other regional powers, including South Korea and India. Recent diplomatic engagements, such as Iwaya's visit to South Korea, demonstrate Japan's efforts to maintain a balanced approach.

Adapting to Trump's Foreign Policy

Japan's experience during Trump's first term provides a blueprint for engagement. Tokyo successfully channeled Trump's instincts on China in a constructive direction, proposing initiatives like the Free and Open Indo-Pacific concept, which was adopted by the Trump administration.

Japan's decision to send Foreign Minister Iwaya to Trump's inauguration represents a calculated and proactive approach to diplomacy in an uncertain geopolitical landscape. By asserting its presence at this high-profile event, Japan aims to reinforce its alliance with the United States, counter China's influence, and position itself as a key player in shaping regional security dynamics.

As the inauguration approaches, all eyes will be on Washington to see how this bold diplomatic move by Japan unfolds. The success of this strategy could set the tone for US-Japan relations in the coming years and significantly influence the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region.