Russia launches new experimental missile into Ukraine as war intensifies

[EUROPE] Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed that his country fired a new experimental ballistic missile into Ukraine. This development marks a concerning shift in the war's dynamics and raises questions about the potential for further escalation.

Putin revealed that the missile, nicknamed "Oreshnik," is a new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile. The Russian president claimed that this weapon struck an industrial complex in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday. According to Putin, the missile moves at an astonishing speed of 2.5-3 kilometers (1.6-1.9 miles) per second, a velocity he asserts is beyond the interception capabilities of current U.S. and European air defense systems.

Russia's Justification and Threats

The Russian leader justified the missile launch as a response to Ukraine's recent use of advanced weapons provided by the United States and the United Kingdom. Putin's statement carried a thinly veiled threat to Ukraine's Western allies, saying, "We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities".

Ukraine's Perspective

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky characterized the missile attack as a demonstration of Putin's fear-driven deployment of new weaponry. Zelensky stated, "Today, our unpredictable neighbor has once again revealed his true nature and his contempt for dignity, freedom, and human life". The Ukrainian leader suggested that the missile possessed characteristics similar to those of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

Conflicting Reports and International Reactions

While Ukraine initially claimed that Russia had launched an ICBM, Western officials have contested this characterization. A Western official, speaking to reporters, clarified that although Russia did launch a ballistic missile, it does not classify as an intercontinental missile. The United States National Security Council confirmed that an "experimental medium-range ballistic" missile had been used against Ukraine, suggesting that Russia likely possesses only a limited number of these weapons.

The Missile's Capabilities and Significance

Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), provided insights into the missile's potential capabilities. He suggested that the current information indicates a longer range than the Iskander missiles previously used in the conflict, which have a maximum range of 500 km (311 miles). Intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs), which Putin seems to be referencing, typically have ranges between 3,000 and 5,500 km.

Broader Context of the Conflict

This missile launch occurs as the Ukraine conflict enters its 1,000th day, marking a precarious new stage in the war. Recent developments include:

The U.S. authorizing Ukraine to use long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike targets within Russia.

Ukraine's reported use of British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles against Russian targets.

The U.S. agreeing to supply Ukraine with anti-personnel landmines.

These actions appear to be in response to Moscow's reported mobilization of North Korean troops and preparations for an offensive aimed at dislodging Ukrainian forces from areas they have occupied in Russia's Kursk region.

Putin's Nuclear Doctrine and International Concerns

In conjunction with the missile launch, Putin has recently ratified a new doctrine that potentially lowers the threshold for Russia's use of nuclear weapons. This doctrine permits a potential nuclear response to any conventional attack on Russia, especially if it involves a nation backed by a nuclear power. Western nations, including the U.S., have criticized Russia for employing what they view as reckless nuclear rhetoric throughout the conflict.

Impact on Ukrainian Cities and Defenses

The missile strike on Dnipro resulted in injuries to at least two individuals and damage to several structures, according to the head of the military administration in Ukraine's Dnipro region. Ukraine employs a Patriot missile defense system supplied by the U.S. and Germany to defend against incoming ballistic missile warheads. However, Ukraine possesses a limited number of these systems, with certain cities, such as the capital Kyiv, enjoying more robust defenses than others.

International Diplomatic Tensions

The missile launch has further strained international relations. The U.S. embassy in Kyiv resumed operations following a temporary closure due to disinformation that led to the shutdown of several Western embassies in Ukraine's capital. Ukrainian authorities accused Russia of conducting an "information and psychological operation" by disseminating a false alert regarding an airstrike on the city.

Future Implications and Concerns

The use of this new missile raises concerns about potential further escalation in the conflict. Putin's threats against countries supporting Ukraine with advanced weaponry add another layer of complexity to the international dynamics surrounding the war. The limited number of these experimental missiles in Russia's possession suggests that while they may not significantly alter the overall balance of the conflict, their symbolic importance and potential for escalation cannot be underestimated.

The confirmation of Russia's use of a new experimental ballistic missile in Ukraine marks a significant moment in the ongoing conflict. As the war continues to evolve, the international community watches closely, concerned about the potential for further escalation and the implications for global security. The situation underscores the urgent need for diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and find a peaceful resolution to the conflict.