The impact of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar's death on the Israel-Gaza conflict

[MIDDLE EAST] The recent killing of Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar by Israeli forces has sent shockwaves through the Middle East and the international community. As the architect of the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel, Sinwar's death marks a significant milestone in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. However, the question remains: Will this event lead to the end of the Israel-Gaza war, or is it merely another chapter in a prolonged struggle?

The Circumstances of Sinwar's Death

On October 16, 2024, Israeli forces announced the elimination of Yahya Sinwar in what was described as a chance encounter in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip. According to reports, a tank unit opened fire on a group of Palestinian men running into a building, resulting in Sinwar's death. This event came after a year-long pursuit by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), who had long considered Sinwar a high-priority target.

Immediate Reactions and International Response

The news of Sinwar's death elicited diverse reactions from various stakeholders in the conflict:

Israeli Perspective

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed Sinwar's death as the "beginning of the end" of the war. However, he was quick to emphasize that the conflict was far from over, stating, "Our task is still incomplete". This sentiment was echoed by other Israeli officials, including Benny Gantz, who suggested that Israel's military operations in Gaza could continue for years to come.

Palestinian and Hamas Response

Hamas and its supporters mourned Sinwar as a martyr and symbol of resistance. Khalil al-Hayya, deputy head of Hamas's political bureau, praised Sinwar's final moments, describing him as fighting bravely until his last breath7. This narrative of heroic resistance is likely to bolster Sinwar's legacy among Palestinians and potentially inspire future generations of fighters.

Western Leaders' Stance

In the aftermath of Sinwar's death, Western leaders saw an opportunity for de-escalation. U.S. President Joe Biden, along with his counterparts from France, Britain, and Germany, called for an immediate cessation of hostilities. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Netanyahu to "capitalize on" Sinwar's demise, advocating for the release of hostages and a resolution to the conflict.

Impact on Hamas's Command Structure

The elimination of Yahya Sinwar represents a significant blow to Hamas's leadership. Over the past year, Israel has successfully targeted and killed several top Hamas figures, including Mohammed Deif and Ismail Haniyeh4. This systematic decimation of Hamas's command structure has left the organization in disarray, potentially weakening its operational capabilities.

However, experts caution against assuming that Hamas as a movement is finished. Scott Lucas of University College Dublin notes:

"Mass killing, even of its leaders, could galvanise it in the longer run. Those who survive will move up through the ranks, and the spirit of resistance and resentment could bring in more recruits."

The Symbolism of Sinwar in Palestinian Resistance

Yahya Sinwar's role in the Palestinian struggle was complex and multifaceted. For many Palestinians, he represented unwavering resistance against Israeli occupation. His 22-year imprisonment in Israel and subsequent rise to leadership in Gaza cemented his status as a symbol of defiance.

However, Sinwar's legacy is not without controversy. His involvement in the brutal October 7 attacks and allegations of torture and execution of rivals have made him a divisive figure, even among Palestinians.

Prospects for a Ceasefire and Peace Negotiations

The death of Sinwar has reignited discussions about the possibility of a ceasefire and the return of Israeli hostages. Western leaders have framed this moment as an opportunity for peace, with Biden describing Sinwar as "an insurmountable obstacle" to a ceasefire.

However, Middle East experts argue that Sinwar's death alone is unlikely to alter the fundamental dynamics of the conflict. Rami G. Khouri, writing for Al Jazeera, contends:

"The claim that Sinwar or any Hamas leader constituted an 'obstacle' to peace is inaccurate. Just four months prior to his death, he had accepted a proposal put forth by Biden and supported by the United Nations Security Council, which ultimately collapsed due to Israel's insistence on further amendments favoring its interests."

Israel's Stance on Continued Military Operations

Despite international calls for de-escalation, Israel has shown little inclination to halt its military operations in Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu, addressing the families of Israeli hostages, vowed to continue with "full force until the return home of all your loved ones, who are our loved ones, too".

This commitment to ongoing military action is further evidenced by recent escalations in northern Gaza, where reports indicate approximately 640 fatalities over a 17-day period.

The Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza

As the conflict persists, the humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate. The prolonged Israeli military campaign has resulted in widespread destruction, displacement, and loss of life. International aid organizations have repeatedly called for increased humanitarian access and a cessation of hostilities to address the urgent needs of Gaza's civilian population.

International Diplomacy and the Path Forward

The death of Yahya Sinwar has thrust the Israel-Gaza conflict back into the spotlight of international diplomacy. While Western leaders advocate for a ceasefire and renewed peace negotiations, the reality on the ground suggests a more complex path forward.

Dr. James Rodgers, a Middle East expert at City, University of London, offers a sobering assessment:

"The elimination of Sinwar, while significant, does not address the root causes of the conflict. Until there is a genuine commitment to addressing Palestinian grievances and Israeli security concerns, lasting peace will remain elusive."

The death of Yahya Sinwar undoubtedly marks a significant moment in the Israel-Gaza conflict. However, its impact on the trajectory of the war remains uncertain. While Western leaders see an opportunity for peace, both Israel and Hamas appear committed to continuing the fight.

As the international community grapples with the implications of Sinwar's death, several key questions remain:

• Will Hamas be able to effectively reorganize its leadership and maintain its resistance against Israel?
• Can international pressure lead to meaningful ceasefire negotiations and the release of hostages?
• How will the humanitarian crisis in Gaza be addressed in the context of ongoing military operations?

The answers to these questions will likely shape the future of the Israel-Gaza conflict in the coming months and years. As the situation continues to evolve, it is clear that Sinwar's death, while significant, is not a panacea for the complex challenges facing the region.