US and France propose 21-day ceasefire amid escalating Israel-Hezbollah conflict

The US and France have called for a 21-day interim ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah to allow for larger negotiations, with UN Secretary General António Guterres telling a UN Security Council meeting that "hell is breaking loose" in Lebanon.

Israel's top general has stated that the government is preparing for a possible ground invasion into Lebanon following a three-day bombing campaign that has killed over 600 people, raising worries of a regional conflict.

The escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have sent shockwaves through the international community, prompting urgent calls for de-escalation. The recent bombing campaign has not only resulted in a significant loss of life but has also displaced thousands of civilians on both sides of the border. Humanitarian organizations are struggling to provide aid and support to those affected, with reports of overcrowded shelters and dwindling supplies reaching critical levels.

The joint statement issued by US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron said: "It is time for a settlement on the Israel-Lebanon border that assures safety and security, allowing civilians to return to their homes. The exchange of fire since October 7th, particularly in the last two weeks, has the potential to escalate the war and cause injury to civilians."

The two leaders, who met on the fringes of the UN General Assembly in New York, stated that they had agreed on a temporary truce "to give diplomacy a chance to succeed and avoid further escalation across the border."

They asked Israel and Lebanon to support the measure, which was also backed by Australia, Canada, the European Union, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.

The proposed 21-day ceasefire has been met with mixed reactions from regional actors. While some view it as a crucial opportunity to prevent further bloodshed, others remain skeptical about its effectiveness in addressing the underlying issues. Analysts point out that previous attempts at brokering peace in the region have often fallen short, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive and sustainable approach to conflict resolution.

On Wednesday night, a senior US administration source stated that both Israel and Lebanon, which is believed to be representing Hezbollah in the negotiations, were anticipated to reply to the call "in the coming hours."

In a background briefing, officials also stated that the cease-fire agreement did not apply to the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

The United States stated that the 21-day period was chosen to allow time for the two sides to negotiate a more comprehensive agreement that would allow residents to return to their homes along the Israel-Lebanon border without fear of further violence or a "October 7th-like attack in the future."

The statement came following a tense UN Security Council meeting in which Lebanon's prime minister accused Israel of violating his country's sovereignty. Najib Mikati stated that Lebanese hospitals were overburdened and unable to absorb any additional victims.

The humanitarian crisis unfolding in Lebanon has reached alarming proportions, with the country's already fragile healthcare system pushed to its limits. Medical professionals report severe shortages of essential supplies and medications, while makeshift field hospitals struggle to cope with the influx of injured civilians. The situation is further complicated by Lebanon's ongoing economic crisis, which has severely impacted its ability to respond effectively to the current emergency.

Israel's UN envoy told the Security Council that his country did not seek a full-scale conflict and that Iran was the "driving force" behind the Middle East's instability.

For his part, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi stated that the US and UK's "unwavering support for Israel has given them carte blanche for all sorts of sinister behavior."

There have been disagreements between the US and its European partners on whether to request an immediate ceasefire in the Security Council. The UK foreign secretary, David Lammy, supported an immediate ceasefire, saying it was time to pull back from the brink, adding that "a full-fledged war is not in the interests of the Israeli or Lebanese people."

He argued that nothing justified Hezbollah's attacks and encouraged Iran to utilize its influence to persuade Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire.

However, US diplomats emphasized that an unconditional ceasefire request in the form of a unified security council statement may be interpreted as acknowledging a moral equivalence between Israel's behavior and that of Hezbollah, a group designated as a terrorist organization by the US.

The suggestion for a temporary three-week pause of hostilities could give a foundation to restart stalled talks on a truce between Hamas and Israel in Gaza. Hezbollah has stated that it will suspend its attacks if Hamas agrees to a Gaza truce, but neither the Hamas leadership nor Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appear to be close to reaching a deal.

Netanyahu was scheduled to arrive in New York on Thursday and is anticipated to announce his support for a 21-day cease-fire.

The potential involvement of other regional actors in the conflict has raised concerns about a wider Middle East conflagration. Reports of increased military activity along Israel's northern border with Syria have heightened fears of a multi-front war. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts are underway to prevent further escalation, with neighboring countries urging restraint and offering to mediate talks between the conflicting parties.

The US deputy ambassador, Robert Wood, said "diplomacy will only become more difficult" if the war escalated further, and he was deeply worried by allegations that hundreds of Lebanese civilians had killed in recent days.

However, he emphasized that the violence stemmed from the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Lebanese people and 65,000 Israeli civilians as a result of Hezbollah's decision on October 8 to end the long-standing truce.

He stated that no one wanted to witness a rerun of the 2006 war, adding that "the war must end with a comprehensive undertaking that has real implementation mechanisms".

The US ambassador did not specify the implementation procedures, but if it violates Hezbollah's sovereignty, it is unlikely to receive its support.

As the international community grapples with the complexities of the situation, the economic impact of the conflict is becoming increasingly apparent. The prolonged hostilities have disrupted trade routes, damaged critical infrastructure, and deterred foreign investment in both Israel and Lebanon. Economic experts warn that a protracted conflict could have long-lasting consequences for the region's stability and prosperity, potentially reversing years of economic progress and exacerbating existing socio-economic disparities.