US Election turmoil and China's Taiwan strategy

[UNITED STATES] As American voters head to the polls in November 2024, a cloud of uncertainty looms over the political landscape. The memory of the tumultuous 2020 election and its aftermath still lingers, raising concerns about the potential for another bout of electoral chaos. This time, however, the stakes seem even higher, with geopolitical experts warning that such instability could have far-reaching consequences beyond America's borders. One particularly alarming scenario being discussed is whether mainland China might seize upon US election turmoil as an opportunity to make a decisive move against Taiwan.

The Backdrop: A Fragile Democracy and Global Power Dynamics

The United States, long considered the beacon of democracy, finds itself at a critical juncture. The possibility of a contested election result, especially if former President Donald Trump refuses to concede defeat, has many on edge. The specter of violence, reminiscent of the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot, looms large, threatening to further erode trust in US leadership and embolden its adversaries.

In this context, China emerges as a key player in the global power dynamics. As Isaac Stone Fish, a veteran observer, points out, "The struggle over the US presidency would be 'a wonderfully opportunistic window' for Beijing to exploit a power vacuum and push for changes Washington opposes, such as a military attack on Taiwan".

China's Perspective: Opportunity in Chaos?

Beijing's stance on US electoral turbulence is clear: it views such chaos as a failure of American democratic institutions. For China and its emerging anti-West coalition, prolonged political instability in the US serves as further evidence of America's perceived decline on the world stage.

The Taiwan Question

At the heart of this geopolitical chess game lies Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims as its own under the One China policy. For decades, the delicate balance in cross-strait relations has been maintained, in part, by the United States' strategic ambiguity and its commitment to Taiwan's defense.

However, a distracted and divided America could potentially alter this equilibrium. As one analyst notes, "Political turbulence over a drawn-out or contested vote count in key battleground states would almost certainly plunge the US into another constitutional crisis". Such a scenario could present an irresistible opportunity for China to advance its long-held goal of reunification with Taiwan.

Assessing the Risks: Would China Really Attack?

While the notion of China launching a military invasion of Taiwan during US election chaos is alarming, it's essential to consider the complexities involved:

International Repercussions: Any military action against Taiwan would likely face severe international condemnation and potential economic sanctions, regardless of the US political situation.

Military Preparedness: A successful invasion of Taiwan would require extensive planning and resources. It's unlikely that China would base such a significant operation solely on temporary US political instability.

Economic Considerations: The global economic fallout from such an action could be devastating, potentially harming China's own interests.

US Military Capability: Even in times of political turmoil, the US military remains a formidable force. China would have to weigh the risks of potential US intervention carefully.

The Role of Perception in International Relations

While an actual military invasion might be unlikely, the perception of US weakness could still have significant implications. As Isaac Stone Fish suggests, China might use this period to "push for changes Washington opposes". This could manifest in various ways:

Increased Pressure on Taiwan: China might ramp up its military exercises in the Taiwan Strait or intensify its diplomatic isolation of Taiwan.

Economic Leverage: Beijing could use economic tools to pressure countries in the region to align more closely with its interests.

Propaganda Efforts: China might intensify its narrative about the superiority of its governance model over Western democracy.

The Broader Geopolitical Landscape

It's crucial to note that China is not the only nation that might seek to capitalize on US electoral chaos. Russia, North Korea, and Iran might also benefit from American political volatility. This highlights the interconnectedness of global politics and the far-reaching implications of local political events.

Preparing for the Unpredictable

As the US election approaches, policymakers and military strategists must prepare for various scenarios. This includes:

Strengthening Democratic Institutions: Ensuring a smooth and transparent electoral process is crucial not just for domestic stability but for maintaining America's global standing.

Clear Communication: US leaders must send unambiguous signals about their commitment to international allies and partners, regardless of domestic political turbulence.

Contingency Planning: Military and diplomatic channels should have clear protocols in place to respond to potential provocations or opportunistic moves by adversaries during periods of political transition.

The Path Forward: Stability in Uncertainty

While the prospect of US election chaos creating an opportunity for China to attack Taiwan is concerning, it's essential to approach this scenario with nuance. The complex web of international relations, economic interdependence, and military deterrence makes such drastic actions less likely than they might appear at first glance.

Nevertheless, the mere discussion of such possibilities underscores the critical importance of maintaining robust democratic processes and institutions. As the world's leading democracy, the United States bears a responsibility not just to its own citizens but to global stability.

As we move closer to the 2024 election, all eyes will be on America. The outcome will not just determine the nation's political future but will send ripples across the global geopolitical landscape. In this high-stakes environment, the resilience of American democracy and its institutions will be put to the test once again.