[MIDDLE EAST] the Biden administration has issued a stern warning to Israel, demanding an immediate increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza within 30 days or face potential cuts to US military assistance. This unprecedented ultimatum marks a turning point in US-Israel relations and underscores the growing concern over the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.
The Warning Letter
On Sunday, October 15, 2024, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin sent a joint letter to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer. The letter expressed "deep concern over the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza" and called for "urgent and sustained actions" to reverse the current trajectory.
The Biden administration's warning comes at a critical time, just weeks before the US presidential election, and reflects mounting pressure from progressive Democrats to take a firmer stance on Israel's actions in Gaza.
Specific Demands and Benchmarks
The letter outlined several specific benchmarks for Israel to meet within the 30-day timeframe:
Allow a minimum of 350 aid trucks per day into Gaza through four border crossings.
Open a fifth border crossing to facilitate aid delivery.
Institute adequate humanitarian pauses in military operations for at least four months to allow for aid delivery and vaccinations.
Cease forcing civilians to evacuate from northern Gaza to the south.
These demands aim to address the severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where aid shipments reached their lowest levels in September since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel over a year ago.
Potential Consequences
The letter invoked the US Foreign Assistance Act, which prohibits military assistance to any country found to be blocking the delivery of US-provided humanitarian aid. While the specific consequences were not detailed, the implication is clear: Israel risks losing crucial US military support if it fails to comply with the demands.
State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller emphasized the legal requirements, stating, "We are required to conduct assessments and find that recipients of US military assistance do not arbitrarily deny or impede the provisioning of US humanitarian assistance. That's just the law, and we of course will follow the law".
Current Humanitarian Situation in Gaza
The humanitarian crisis in Gaza has reached critical levels. According to the letter, September saw a 50% drop in aid compared to spring levels2. Israeli authorities have reportedly:
- Halted imports to Palestinian civilians
- Denied or impeded 90% of humanitarian movements between northern and southern Gaza
- Imposed new, burdensome requirements for trucks carrying critical supplies
The United Nations and other aid groups have become increasingly vocal about the deteriorating situation, particularly as winter approaches. A recent Al Jazeera documentary highlighted the tragic consequences, showing Palestinian children dying of malnutrition.
Israeli Response and Actions
In response to mounting pressure, an Israeli military unit reported allowing 30 trucks through a crossing in northern Gaza on Monday, October 14. The unit stated, "Israel is not preventing the entry of humanitarian aid, with an emphasis on food, into Gaza. Israel will continue to allow the entry of humanitarian aid to the residents of Gaza, while simultaneously destroying Hamas' military and governance infrastructures".
However, these actions fall short of the benchmarks set by the US administration, which calls for a minimum of 350 trucks per day.
US-Israel Relations and Military Aid
The United States remains the largest provider of arms to Israel, with the Israeli military heavily dependent on US-supplied aircraft, precision bombs, missiles, and shells5. This reliance underscores the significance of the Biden administration's warning and the potential impact on Israel's military capabilities.
The warning comes as the US is also sending an advanced air defense system to help Israel defend against potential missile attacks from Iran, following recent tensions between the two countries.
Skepticism and Criticism
Despite the strong language in the letter, some experts remain skeptical about its potential impact. Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East peace negotiator now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, commented, "The Israelis will do enough to appear to be improving the humanitarian conditions, and the administration will play along regardless of how serious that effort is".
Miller added, "It strains the bounds of credulity to the breaking point to believe that the administration would act to restrict US military aid to Israel as the Iran-Israel crisis heats up".
Previous Assessments and Concerns
The current warning follows earlier assessments by US government agencies. In spring 2024, the US Agency for International Development and the State Department's refugees bureau concluded that Israel had deliberately blocked deliveries of food and medicine into Gaza. These experts recommended halting weapons sales under the Foreign Assistance Act.
However, Secretary Blinken rejected these findings at the time, telling Congress that the State Department had concluded Israel was not arbitrarily blocking aid. The current letter suggests a shift in the administration's stance and a recognition of the worsening situation in Gaza.
International Reaction and Implications
The US warning has drawn international attention and raised questions about the future of US-Israel relations. The move signals a potential shift in US policy towards its longtime ally and may encourage other nations to increase pressure on Israel regarding its actions in Gaza.
The United Nations and various humanitarian organizations have welcomed the US stance, hoping it will lead to a significant improvement in aid delivery to Gaza's civilian population.
Looking Ahead
As the 30-day deadline approaches, all eyes will be on Israel's response and actions. The Netanyahu government faces a difficult balancing act between addressing US concerns and maintaining its security objectives in Gaza.
The outcome of this diplomatic standoff could have far-reaching consequences for US-Israel relations, the humanitarian situation in Gaza, and the broader geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.
